716
FXUS63 KGRR 270643
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
243 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet through Early Friday

- Showers and storms Friday Night/Saturday

- Cool High Pressure for early Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

- Quiet through Early Friday

Surface high pressure will hold over the region through early Friday
leading to quiet and dry weather. Comfortable temperatures in the
70s to low 80s are expected with dewpoints around 50 to 55. Wind
will stay primarily northerly today and will shift southerly
Friday morning ahead of an approaching system Friday night into
Saturday.

- Showers and storms Friday Night/Saturday

A belt of fast westerlies persists across the northern CONUS through
the late week and into next week. Shortwave troughs will bring a
chance of rain late Friday into Saturday and again Monday night into
Tuesday. In between there will be a Canadian surface high bringing
low humidity and cool temperatures.

Rain chances increasing Friday afternoon and evening as moisture
pools ahead of the advancing cold front. Model consensus still has
the greatest chance for showers and storms late Friday night.

A severe weather threat may be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday as Lower Michigan is in the warm sector and model soundings
show around 30 knots of shear ahead of the cold front. The limiting
factor is the diurnal minimum instability and the persistence of
convective inhibition during the expected late night timing of the
storms.

- Cool High Pressure for early Next Week

Surface high builds in behind the front with dry and cool weather
for Sunday into Monday, then another chance of showers as the next
shortwave trough approaches Monday night and Tuesday. Lows Sunday
night expected to dip down into the 40s in the rural areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions will continue through Thursday with northwest
winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Waves will diminish from north to south this morning, but a subtle
increase of northwest wind this afternoon may increase waves to 2 to
3 feet for beaches south of Muskegon. Current forecasts suggest this
brief push of wind will be too short lived to build waves to
hazardous levels, but wave heights may be worth monitoring this
afternoon.

Waves diminish late tonight as the center of the high moves overhead
and winds shift offshore. Winds shift more southerly early Friday
and build into the late morning to afternoon. These southerly winds
will build wave heights early Friday into the afternoon. Conditions
will be hazardous to small craft and a beach hazard statement may be
needed for this time period as well.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno/Thielke
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Thielke