Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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161 FXUS63 KGRR 221938 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 338 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain moves out tonight - Rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday - Break in precip late work week, wet into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Rain moves out tonight Low pressure is currently centered just southwest of GRR according to surface obs and radar. The low is moving east and will take the steadier rain with it the next few hours. The chance for showers will linger through the evening until a secondary cold front with a push of drier air moves through overnight. Astronomically speaking, summer ended this morning but it also looks to have ended meteorologically with temperatures closer to long term averages the next couple days. That means lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs in the lower 70s. - Rain chances through Wednesday A building ridge over the east coast will allow a trough situated over the central Plains to deepen. This pattern will then set up for a shortwave to swing through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. PWATS of 1 to 1.5 inches should aid the mid level low to bring more precipitation to the region Tuesday. As the trough swings to the northeast precipitation will fade Tuesday night into early Wednesday. - Break in precip late work week, wet into next week While there continues to be some differences in the mid to long range models the trends continue to show agreement on position and passage of the large 500mb trough over the central United states Thursday through the weekend. The consensus is that a positively tilted ridge of high pressure will build over the Great lakes bringing more warm and dry weather over Michigan, though temperatures should remain in the upper 70s, which is still around 10 degrees above normal. The before mentioned low that will be meandering through the central Plains this week is progged to make its way to the northwest which could bring the region showers early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Showers have begun as rainshowers are overspreading the region from the west to the east. Periods of heavy showers have brought predominately MVFR cigs and vsbys with periods of IFR cigs and vsbys to MKG and BIV. Expect cigs and vsbys to continue to lower through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. As the cold front swings east through the TAF sites today there remains some chance for isolated thunderstorms, mainly 20Z to 00Z with the best chances at the southern TAF sites. IFR and LIFR conditions will become the main aviation weather category between 00z and 06z tonight. Cigs will slowly improve to MVFR tomorrow morning between 11Z at 15Z with VFR predominate after 16Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 No changes to the SCA. Winds and waves will decrease later Monday but could spike up again by late Tuesday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno/Ceru AVIATION...Ceru MARINE...Ostuno