256
FXUS63 KGRR 222330
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
730 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

- Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve

Quiet weather through Thursday night...then a cold front will be
pushing through the CWA Friday evening. Scattered showers/storms
will be developing along and ahead of this feature as it moves in.
Models do varying with how much surface based instability will
develop. The GFS/Nam have been featuring the most with values
topping 1000 J/kg into the evening, while the ECMWF and Canadian
have kept values mostly under 500 J/kg and have the instability
focused over southwest parts of the CWA.

The winds at 500 mb are not projected to be very strong, under 30
knots. There will be a low level jet in that area, 30 to 35 knots
that will likely enhance the potential for storms. With lower
values of deep layer shear, any storms that develop will likely be
pulse in nature. Overall though with several models struggling to
develop any instability, confidence on their occurrence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Very quiet weather expected for the terminals for the next 24
hours. Somewhat gusty winds will remain up for an hour or two at
inland sites this evening. These will diminish quickly after
sunset, and stay from the SW. Skies will remain mostly clear with
diurnal clouds dissipating, and just some high cirrus across the
south. Just a little bit of high clouds possible initially on
Thursday morning, with a few cumulus development possible in the
afternoon. Winds will become a little gusty in the afternoon at
KLAN and KGRR away from the lake, and the better winds further
north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Waves are still near or above 4 feet this afternoon but winds are
slowly decreasing and only a few gusts over 25 knots are expected
for the rest of the afternoon. Winds and waves will be decreasing
into Thursday and Friday then increasing on Saturday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJS/Ostuno
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...Ostuno