Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
263 FXUS62 KGSP 020508 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 108 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure moves off the Carolina coast on Sunday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture. A typical summer pattern will develop during the first half of the week with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances. Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage for Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front approaches our area, with drier weather expected to return by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 100 AM Update...High based clouds producing periodic light rain, sprinkles, and virga continue across the FA this morning. More moderate showers are running up the NC/SC spine yet producing very little rainfall over any given locale. Expect an uptick in overall shower coverage arnd 09z-10z as a weak sfc bndry currently located over ern AL pushes in from the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 pm Saturday: The upper air pattern will become increasingly anticyclonic across our region early in the short term, as a weak ridge builds from the Deep South through the Great Lakes. As a result, a deep moisture plume will gradually shunt east of the forecast area early in the period. In the interim, scattered coverage of showers along with a few storms will continue into Sunday evening before steadily tapering off. Decreasing deep layer moisture will yield less in the way of cloud cover, but also improved potential for destabilization Monday afternoon. Diurnal convection is forecast to initiate...esp across the high terrain. While coverage is expected to be more limited than on Monday, sbCAPE of around 1500 J/kg should allow for a few stronger storms, with perhaps a stray pulse severe storm not completely out of the question. With little change in the pattern and thermodynamic profiles expected, Tuesday should be very similar to Monday, with scattered diurnal convection expected, and perhaps a slight uptick in the threat for a pulse severe storm with hotter conditions expected. The first half of the period is expected to see temps average around...or slightly above normal...while the short term is expected to end around 5 degrees above climo. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 pm Saturday: An expansive/deep upper low will wobble from the Canadian Prairie at the start of the period to the Great Lakes by Thursday evening. Height falls associated with a vorticity lobe lifting ahead of the low is expected to send a frontal boundary into the region by late Wed, enhancing convective chances across the southern Appalachians and vicinity Wed into Wed night. Indications in global model guidance are that the afternoon will see at least moderate instability, albeit in a modestly sheared environment. A few strong-to-severe pulse storms and/or multicell clusters will be possible. An additional round of storms is possible Thursday, although this is a bit more uncertain, as some global model guidance suggests drier air will be filtering into the area in the wake of the frontal boundary Thu afternoon. PoPs are generally advertised in the solid chance range during that time. The latter half of the period should become more inactive as lower theta-E air advects into the region. PoPs for Fri/Sat are limited to token slight chances, mainly over the mtns. Temperatures are forecast at around 2-4 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: The weather becomes more active today as a weak, yet moist, sfc bndry pushes in from the west. Have all terminals seeing increasing chance of vicinity showers before daybreak and PROB30 thunder chances during the afternoon, generally beg 17z west and 18z east. Restrictions will be limited to lowering CIGs to MVFR after the tstms weaken and push east during the latter period. Could see IFR or lower VSBY near daybreak Mon across the TAF sites and this potential will be addressed with the 12z TAF set. Winds remain rather low-end and generally s/ly to sw/ly as broad sfc ridging persists associated with a sfc high stationed off the Atl coast. Outlook: Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances with associated restrictions will linger through the middle of next week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...SBK SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...SBK