229
FXUS62 KGSP 170759
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
359 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime weather is on tap for today before strong high
pressure builds in on Tuesday.  High pressure atop the region will
then suppress any storms from developing until moisture returns on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3:35 AM Monday...A handful of isolated showers continue to
linger over western NC early this morning, but they should dissi-
pate soon. Persistent cloud cover this morning should limit any
widespread fog development, however we are already seeing some
patchy fog develop in the mtn valleys. Low temps should remain
1 to 2 categories above normal again this morning.

Otherwise, extensive upper ridging will remain centered just to
our NE and continue to dominate the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS thru
the near-term period. At the sfc, the center of robust high pre-
ssure will gradually drift SE and away from the New England Coast
today and tonight but still dominate the synoptic pattern down the
entire Eastern Seaboard. This will keep low-lvl SELY flow over our
area today but also begin to advect some lower theta-E air into our
eastern zones. With the upper ridge in place, deep-layer flow will
also become increasingly weak with mid-level lapse rates remaining
fairly weak as well. This should favor diurnal convection over the
mtns, where it will likely remain confined thru the day/evening.
This is reflected in the PoPs, which are low-end likely across most
of the mtns to only a slight chance over our SE zones. Sfc-based
instability may be sufficient to support a brief pulse severe storm
or two, but locally heavy/excessive rainfall will probably be a
bigger threat owing to the expected slow cell motion. High temps
should top out a degree or two above climatology for mid-June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Monday: The effects of the building stout
Mid-Atlantic/NE upper anticyclone is expected to suppress any deep
convective development atop the region on both Tuesday and
Wednesday, save for isolated diurnally fired ridgetop shower
chances.  Despite 595/6dm 50H height values atop the Carolinas, llvl
easterly flow will temper warming, and maximum temperatures remain
progged to be just around climo each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday: The cwfa is progged to be within the
southern periphery of the strong anticyclone centered along the mid-
Atlantic coast to start off the period.  Essentially a persistance
forecast for Thursday, a continued suppressed atmosphere with high
temperatures right around the mid-June climo.  Upper ridging will be
breaking down on Friday, and as the llvl flow veers to southerly,
expect an uptick in sfc dwpts and temperatures. Piedmont lower 90s
will be possible for maximums, and as the atmosphere becomes weakly
unstable, a few diurnally fired tstms will be possible. Temperatures
will continue to warm throughout the upcoming weekend thanks to the
mean lvll flow around developing Bermuda high pressure.  Piedmont
temperatures could be flirting with middle 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: We`re still seeing some isolated showers
across our area but they continue to diminish. I kept a VCSH for
the next few hrs at all of the terminals (except KAND) for any
lingering showers that may impact the sites. Otherwise, lower
clouds move in from the SE overnight as robust Atlantic high
pressure keeps moist low-level flow over our region. MVFR cigs
are likely before daybreak all sites with IFR cigs and MVFR
visby possible at KHKY and KAVL. It will likely take a little
while for the lower clouds to lift/sct out with some sites
possibly holding lower cigs until noon or so. Winds will remain
light to calm thru the morning and pick up modestly from the SE
again this afternoon.

Outlook: An amplifying upper ridge is likely to result in mostly
dry/VFR conditions Tuesday thru Thursday, although early morning
fog/stratus could develop each day, mainly in the mtn valleys.
Diurnal convection could return to the area on Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT