661
FXUS62 KGSP 160203
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1003 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. The high will linger over the region through much of next
week keeping temperatures above normal. Isolated diurnal ridgetop
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Monday.
Drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 955 PM: Large uncapped SBCAPE remains near the
southeast-facing Escarpment at 8 PM with weak easterly flow
continuing. No surprise then that weak convection continues
to bubble over the mountains and foothills. Some capping does
eventually appear on prog soundings as ridge moves overhead, but
until then little change in profiles, with enough low level wind
to keep PBL mixed. Thus, kept PoPs as-is after earlier updates,
as they appear more in line with observations than recent HRRR
runs which have trended drier overnight. Outflow from Midlands
convection has made it to southern Anderson and Greenville counties
and that still could serve as a focus for new development in the
next few hours. Still anticipate the sea breeze may reach the I-77
corridor by dawn, although that may be more of interest as a route
low cloud cover could develop, so retained increasing sky cover
at the end of the night in that area.

Looks to become more convectively active across the mtns Sunday as
se/ly BL flow develops and upslope enhancement helps produce pulse
type storms. Dont anticipate severe level storms as the environ
remain neg forced, but a couple cells could reach SPS strength
as sbCAPE increases to arnd 1200 J/kg. Lows tonight will remain
abv normal with increasing in cloud cover late, while highs Sun
return to near normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Saturday: An upper level anticyclone will be in
place across the region through the short range period. On Sunday
night and Monday, there will enough moisture and upslope flow to
create showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. However, as the
anticyclone strengthens, a strong drying trend is expected with
Tuesday being an entirely dry day. Highs each day will be 2-3
degrees above climo, generally upper 80s in the Piedmont and mid 80s
in the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: The strong upper anticyclone will settle
over the mid-Atlantic region for the middle to end of next week.
This will lead to dry conditions and temperatures just a few degrees
above climo. There may be an increase in moisture toward the week of
the week leading to a return to a normal diurnal chance of showers
and storms. Overall, it will be a pretty quiet period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated SHRA over the NC mtns or adjacent
foothills should gradually diminish diurnally this evening. However,
sfc winds are expected to keep the PBL mixed and new development
is not entirely out of the question overnight. Winds above the PBL
are already SE, which should allow outflows from storms in the SC
Midlands to push into the Upstate, and the sea breeze also may reach
KCLT before dawn. Any new development should be isolated enough to
omit from TAFs. CCLs may lower with an uptick in humidity behind
either boundary, so lower VFR to MVFR level clouds remain possible
in the predawn hours. Not confident enough to go with restrictive
cigs. Still likely too mixed for any fog. SE flow will persist
thru Sunday, and with lower LCLs/CCLs chance of diurnal SHRA/TSRA
will be a bit better than it was today. Confidence supports VCSH
at KAVL in the aftn.

Outlook: More moist and generally southerly flow continues into
Monday supporting another round of diurnal SHRA/TSRA. Upper
anticyclone is likely to result in dry/VFR daytime conditions
Tue-Thu, but nocturnal fog/stratus could develop in the early
mornings.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...SBK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...Wimberley