561
FXUS61 KGYX 230344
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1144 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An ocean storm continues to churn well southeast of Cape Cod and
will keep slowly drifting away from New England to start the
work week. A persistent northeast wind will maintain high surf
along the coast through at least Monday. The high astronomical
tide cycle and storm surge in combination with increased waves
will keep water levels high around high tide, with another
chance at minor flooding possible during the afternoon tide
Monday. High pressure will gradually try and build into the
region through the week, bringing mostly seasonable temperatures
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1145 PM Update... A wide range in temperatures is being observed
across the region depending on location with respect to some
passing mid-level clouds. Where skies are mainly clear readings
are into the lower to middle 40s while areas where these clouds
are crossing have warmed back up into the lower to middle 50s.
This will present some challenge to the overnight lows forecast
but by in large most locations should cool into the 40s. These
clouds could have impacts on valley fog as well.

710 PM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends. It will continue to be a dry night with low temperatures
falling into the 40s in most locations away from the immediate
coast and urban corridors.

Previously...
510 PM Update... Allowed the coastal flood advisory for the
southern coast to expire. Otherwise, no other changes were made
at this time to the inherited forecast.

Previously...
Between two systems the forecast area is largely left with some
upslope enhanced cu and stratocu this afternoon. As diurnal
heating wanes the clouds will dissipate as well. Other than some
very high/thin cirrus it will be clear tonight. Temps should
radiate well and valley fog is expected...despite drier air
moving in from the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weather pattern continues to become compressed Mon. The
ridge axis centered over the eastern Great Lakes now will start
to encroach late in the day. So a gradual increase in mid to
high clouds is likely...especially across western zones. Temps
will remain seasonable...as northeast winds keep the warmer air
at bay. Barring significant cloud cover...another cool night
and valley fog is possible Mon night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some changes in the overall long range forecast, but the main
feature of a deepening and closing off 500 MB trough tracking SE
from James Bay mid-late week is still the main feature, although
track and strength changes have occurred in the models,
partially to presence of tropical cyclone developing over the
Gulf of Mexico and moving into the southern CONUS. Initial
ridging ahead of that system should make for a dry and mainly
sunny Tuesday, and Wed looks mostly dry as well with the
unsettled period focused on Wed night -Thu night, with a return
to dry wx for the weekend.

Sfc ridge continues to nose SW from the center of strong high
pressure over Labrador on Tuesday, and should see mainly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s, which is pretty close
to normal. Clouds will begin to move in Tue night, mainly cirrus
which will affect rad cooling somewhat, although probably not
too much in the mtns valleys, and lows range from the low to mid
40s in the mtns to the low 50s in the S. The sfc ridge hangs on
for much of Wed, but I think more clouds and sun as the mid and
high clouds thicken, especially in the afternoon. A few showers
may be possible in the afternoon across NH as well, but they
will be scattered.

The best chance for showers will be Wed night into Thu, as
energy moving through base of closed aloft combine with some mid
level WAA. Showers should move from NW -SE Wed night and
continue through Thu across the CWA. Highs Thu will mostly be in
the 60s. By Friday, the system shifts to our SE and should see
clearing in N flow with highs in the 65-70 range. The weekend
looks dry with temps running above normal in the mid 60s to low
70s N to S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions have returned and are expected to
prevail for the daytime hours into the evening at all TAF sites.
Overnight tonight good radiational cooling and development of
valley fog is anticipated. I have added IFR or lower conditions
at LEB...HIE...and CON. Another round of valley fog and local
IFR or lower conditions is possible Mon night at the same
locations as long as cloud cover does not become too widespread.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Tue-Wed, although flight
restrictions are likely by Wed night, and especially on
Thursday, in rain and low cigs. The restrictions will likely
linger into Thu night, but should see a return to VFR Friday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...From the outer waters into the eastern portions of
Casco Bay seas will remain at or above 5 ft into Mon. Generally
seeing obs around 5 to 7 ft with a long period. Model forecasts
continue this thru at least the daylight hours Mon...so I have
just extended the high surf advisory to match the existing SCA.
A very gradual trend down in seas is expected thru the day.

Long Term...While winds are likely to remain below SCA criteria,
pulses of low pressure S of the waters over the next several
days will keep the swell up near 5-6 feet through much of the
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides continues to come down from their astronomical peak for
the month but storm surge remains near 1 ft. With sustained
northeast winds driving that surge towards the coast some minor
flooding is expected over the next hour or two. Another round of
minor coastal flooding...splash-over...and beach erosion is
likely Mon...though any flooding will likely be confined to the
Seacoast. Another coastal flood advisory may be necessary.

Beach surveys and Emergency Managers continue to indicate
compromised dune systems along the coastline from our storms
this past winter...which will limit natural protection.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for MEZ023-024.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152>154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Tubbs