145
FXHW60 PHFO 141315
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
315 AM HST Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge will linger north of the Hawaiian Islands
into next week producing moderate to breezy trade winds. Weak
upper level troughing will keep brief periods of windward showers
in the forecast favoring windward and mountain areas with drier
conditions over leeward locations. Clouds and showers will develop
along the Kona slopes of the Big Island each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A combination of satellite and radar imagery this morning shows
numerous light to moderate showers moving into the eastern slopes
of the Big Island and Maui. Smaller islands show more isolated to
scattered shower coverage. Weak upper level troughing will
continue to keep brief periods of showers in the forecast.
However, a weak low level easterly wave moves into the islands by
Saturday night as shown on the 700 mb streamlines, producing a
slight boost to shower activity through Sunday morning. A
subtropical jet stream over the region will continue to spread
high level ice crystal cirrus clouds from west to east across the
islands. These clouds will likely enhance morning sunrise and
evening sunset colors through the weekend.

A high pressure ridge will linger through this weekend and into
next week. This ridge will maintain a fairly typical moderate to
breezy trade wind weather pattern into the foreseeable future with
little day to day variation. Weak upper level troughing will keep
the trade wind temperature inversion heights between 5,000 to
7,000 feet for much of the forecast period. Expect brief showers
at times, mainly over windward and mountain areas. Shower activity
will trend higher in the overnight to early morning hours each
day. Drier conditions are forecast over leeward locations.

Not much day to day change in the weather forecast is expected
over the next seven days. Increasing trends in the easterly trade
wind speeds may develop from next week Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
With a ridge north of the islands, expect moderate to breezy
trade winds to continue over the next couple of days. Low clouds
and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, and will bring
brief periods of MVFR conditions. A few showers may make it over
to leeward areas at times, but otherwise, VFR conditions should
prevail. An enhanced area of clouds and showers riding in on the
trades upstream of the Big Island early this morning will
continue to bring MVFR conditions to the east side through mid
morning.

AIRMET Sierra has been posted for tempo mountain obscuration on
the Big Island. Expect conditions to improve later today. No
other AIRMETs are in effect at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will continue through the
weekend much of next week as a surface ridge remains north of the
area. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the
windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island
through Saturday and will likely be extended later today through
the weekend. The ridge may weaken a touch early next week, that
could ease winds to moderate to locally strong, however the SCA
for the windier waters may continue through the forecast period.

Near shore buoys continue to show a small to medium, long period
south swell filling quite nicely. A High Surf Advisory has been
posted for all south facing shores today as this long period south
swell continues to gradually build today. This swell could reach
near warning- levels late tonight and Saturday as the swell peaks.
Offshore buoy 51004 has been showing slightly more swell energy
than buoy 51003 which could mean the bigger portion of the swell
is farther east than expected. We will continue to monitor all
observations to determine if the HSA needs to be upgraded to a
High Surf Warning. A gradual downward trend is expected Sunday
into early next week. After this swell moves out, very little
swell is expected next week beginning around Tuesday. North-
facing shore surf will become flat for the next few days. Small
medium period northwest pulses may provide a tiny bump Sunday
night into middle of next week. Surf along east- facing shores
will remain small and choppy each day due to a limited trade wind
fetch upstream of the islands.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for south facing
shores.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Almanza