Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
741 FXHW60 PHFO 111346 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 346 AM HST Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure far north and northeast of the state will maintain moderate to locally breezy trades today, with winds starting to weaken over the weekend. Expect to see fairly typical summertime weather into next week as clouds and showers favor windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... A 1033 mb high remains well to the north-northeast of the islands. and will continue to bring moderate to locally breezy trade winds to the region through this afternoon. The high is expected to drift northward over the weekend and into next week, which will allow for a bit of a downtick in winds tonight and tomorrow. Showery low clouds continue to impact portions of Maui County and Oahu overnight. The backend of this area is expected to reach the islands later this morning. As such, look for improving conditions today. The northern edge is moving over the Kauai Channel, but it remains to be seen if the area holds together enough to impact Kauai. The high is expected to slowly move north over the weekend, which will help the trades to weaken some. A drier airmass is expected to move in, with limited clouds and showers mainly impacting the north and east sections of the islands. The one wrinkle to the forecast will be the evolution of an upper level disturbance to the north of the islands. This disturbance could help to enhance instability over the western half of the state which could bring some enhanced showers this weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... High pressure to the northeast will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds that will persist today, with a slight downward trend tonight and tomorrow. AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet to the lee of mountains for all Hawaiian islands, due to winds and the stable atmosphere. An area of low clouds and showers has been impacting Maui County and Oahu overnight, prompting AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet along windward sides of Maui, Molokai and Oahu. This area has nudged northward overnight into the Kauai Channel, but has also thinned. Its questionable whether or not Kauai will need an AIRMET Sierra later today. Expect conditions to improve across Maui County and Oahu today. Prevailing VFR conditions expected for Big Island. && .MARINE... High pressure far northeast of the waters will continue to drive moderate to locally strong trade winds through the day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typical windy waters around Maui County and Big Island through this afternoon. There will be a short-lived lull in trade speeds early Saturday as the pressure gradient from the high northeast of the state relaxes a bit. While the high will pull away further to the north early next week, the gradient will remain tight enough across the nearshore waters to result several more days of moderate to locally strong trades. The recent small, long period south swell will continue its gradual decline through the day. A reinforcing longer period south swell is scheduled to arrive tonight. This little boost, in tandem with another small, long period south swell arriving Sunday night into Monday, will hold south-facing shore surf to slightly under summertime averages. East-facing shore surf will remain rough as moderate to fresh trades blow through the day. A very small northwest swell originating behind a front hanging up far northwest of the islands may pass through early next week. This will keep north-facing shore surf from going completely flat. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...M Ballard AVIATION...M Ballard MARINE...Blood