373
FXHW60 PHFO 080125
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
325 PM HST Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Light to gentle easterly trade winds will persist into Saturday
as a ridge of high pressure meanders north of the the state.
Trade winds will briefly shift out of the northeast as a ridge of
high pressure moves for west to east north of the state then
gradually strengthen. Moderate to locally breezy easterly trade
wind conditions are expected by Sunday, and persist into the
middle of the new week. Very stable conditions will greatly limit
shower activity through the weekend, with a slight increase in
windward showers expected Monday and Tuesday. A more typical trade
wind pattern should return by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Surface analysis continues to show a ridge of high pressure
located roughly 100 miles north of Kauai which is generating a
hybrid sea breeze and gentle easterly trade wind flow across the
state. This afternoon visible satellite image shows low level
clouds confined along windward slopes and select leeward slopes
where sea breezes have become well established. Rainfall totals
remain scant across the state based on latest rain gauge
observations and radar. Land breeze will develop shortly after
sunset which will help clear some clouds, especially for leeward
areas through the overnight hours. This dry hybrid trade wind and land/sea
breeze pattern is expected to persist into Saturday.

The ridge will begin to lift northward and shift eastward
Saturday afternoon and evening, shifting winds briefly out of the
northeast. Moderate to locally breezy easterly trades are
expected by Sunday and persist into the middle of next week as the
ridge of high pressure continues to shift northeast of the state.
Clouds and showers will return to the more typical windward and
mauka areas, however shower activity will remain limited across
the entire state over the weekend due to very stable conditions
from low inversion heights. The trade wind inversion will begin to
lift early next week, which should bring a slight increase in
trade wind showers Monday and Tuesday, but will still remain drier
than normal for this time of year. A more typical trade wind
pattern should return during the middle to latter half of the week
with rising inversion heights.


&&

.AVIATION...

A ridge of high pressure just north of the state will maintain
light trade winds across the region. Trade winds are expected to
strengthen on Saturday with locally breezy trades expected by
Saturday afternoon. Shower activity will continue to remain limited
due to a strong ridge of high pressure aloft. With the strong
inversion, ceilings will be quite low with any clouds, which will
allow for periods of MVFR conditions.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for
parts of the Big Island. Ceilings have briefly lifted in select
areas, but will likely lower again during the evening hours into
tonight. Land breezes should eventually help clear the clouds, but
it may take most of the night to fully clear out.


&&

.MARINE...
A weak elongated ridge in the northern offshore waters will hold
in place over the region. Expect wind speeds to remain below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold through the day Saturday. High
pressure will redevelop north of the state over the weekend,
allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Models show the
potential for SCA conditions across typical windier waters around
Maui County and the Big Island by late Saturday into Sunday.

The current south-southwest swell will steadily decline through
the weekend. That said, observations show this swell is producing
surf up to High Surf Advisory (HSA) threshold along south facing
shores, prompting continuation of an HSA through tonight. A
bigger moderate long period south-southwest swell will build
through Saturday, then peak Sunday night into Monday. This swell
could generate surf at or above HSA threshold once again at its
peak. Yet another long period south swell may generate HSA
threshold surf late next week. The current small northwest swell
continues to decline. However, a reinforcing pulse from the
northwest will continue tonight and give north facing shores a
small bump. Wind waves for east facing shores have diminished
significantly and will remain small into the weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for all south facing
shores.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Kino
MARINE...Powell