168
FXHW60 PHFO 180645
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
845 PM HST Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will hold through the
end of the week. Our typical dry season trade wind pattern is
expected Wednesday through Saturday with passing showers focused
over windward slopes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest satellite and radar imagery show an area of numerous
clouds and showers moving mainly over the windward areas of Maui
and the Big Island earlier this evening and just now reaching
windward Oahu. This enhanced area of showers will continue to
provide an uptick in clouds and showers overnight for the rest of
the state as it moves from east to west. Some showers will spill
over to leeward areas of the smaller islands. The showers along
the Kona that produced rainfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour has
ended and can expect a drying trend through the rest of the
night.

A 1031 mb high sitting far north of the state should weaken some
over the next several days. This translates to moderate to
locally breezy trade winds slowly easing toward the end of the
week into early next week.

As far as rainfall, after tonight we should see our typical dry
season weather with mostly dry conditions across leeward areas and
scattered showers over windward areas primarily during the night
and early morning hours return on Wednesday and persist through
Saturday. The enhanced clouds and showers this evening is situated
on the tail end of above normal moisture that has been moving
through the state these past couple of days. Just upstream are
moisture values that are near to below normal that will start to
filter in over the state aiding in the drying trend. By early next
week, global models are showing an upper level low dropping
southward and within the vicinity of the state around Monday. At
this time, it is too early to tell whether or not this will bring
any unsettled weather to the state. But if it does, we could see
an increase of shower coverage as early as Sunday of next week.
Stay tuned for more details.


&&

.AVIATION...
A stable, moderate to breezy trade wind flow will prevail during
the next couple of days. Stable conditions will prevail, with
only limited areas of low ceilings and temporary MVFR conditions
over windward areas. Aside from afternoon clouds over Kona slopes
of the Big Island, VFR conditions will prevail.

AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence over and downwind of
terrain will likely remain in effect during the next couple of
days. AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration been cancelled
for the windward areas of the Big Island as shower coverage
decreased. No other AIRMETS are currently in effect.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north and northeast of the state will keep moderate
to locally strong trade winds in place through the weekend. A
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically
windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Thursday.
The SCA may need to be extended through the weekend.

East shore surf will hold near seasonal levels through Thursday,
then slowly lower Friday through early next week. A mix of
southeast, south and southwest swells will keep small surf
rolling into south facing shores through Monday. A slight bump in
south shore surf is possible around Tuesday or Wednesday of next
week as a slightly larger long-period southwest swell moves
through. North shore surf will remain very small through the
weekend. A nice bump in north shore surf is possible Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week as a 3 to 4 foot medium to long-period
northwest swell arrives.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Jelsema