209
FXHW60 PHFO 250647
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
847 PM HST Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades weaken to moderate from mid-week onward as a stable
trade wind pattern persists. Periodic light showers will focus
over windward and mauka zones during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sharp trade wind inversion noted on this afternoon`s soundings
out of Lihue and Hilo. Combined with shallow moisture depth at the
top of the boundary layer, this supports a scattered coverage of
rather shallow showers that have been responsible for a few
hundredths of an inch of rain over select windward and mauka
sites during the last 24 hours. Similar to last night, expect
little more than periodic light showers over the typical favored
areas.

Water vapor imagery shows mid-level ridging NW of the islands
centered along 170W with more subtle troughing to the east along
150W. As the week progresses, ridging will broaden and expand in
coverage while the aforementioned trough cuts off, deepens, and
drifts westward over the islands. This will serve to slightly weaken
the inversion, but is unlikely to have a substantial impact on
shower intensity or coverage. Instead, its primary impact on local
sensible weather will come in the form of pressure falls that will
weaken the gradient and take the edge off of the trades beginning
Tuesday and continuing into the weekend. Moderate trades are
therefore expected to be firmly in place during the latter half of
this week. Per extended model guidance, breezy trades return as the
low is reabsorbed into the westerlies early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trades will begin to ease tonight through
Tuesday. SHRA and brief MVFR conds should stay confined to
windward/mauka locations.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mtn obsc for windward slopes
of most islands.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low-level turb over and
downwind of island terrain due to the breezy trade winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure far north of the state will maintain fresh
to locally strong easterly trades through Tuesday. Trades will
gradually weaken through mid- week as the high moves east-
northeastward away from the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
for the typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big
Island has been extended through early Wednesday morning where
winds will remain strong.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through
Tuesday, followed by a gradual downtrend during mid-week as
trades ease.

Surf along south facing shores will be near or slightly below
seasonal norms through Tuesday night as a small, medium-period,
south swell continues to move through. This swell will fade
Tuesday night. Additional small, medium- to long- period south
swells will return Wednesday night through the remainder of the
forecast period.

A small, medium-period, northwest swell will bring a tiny boost
to north shore surf through Tuesday. Small medium- to long- period
northwest swells will keep surf from going flat through the
remaining forecast period.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC/Ahue
AVIATION...Powell
MARINE...Almanza