605
FXHW60 PHFO 160145
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
345 PM HST Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade wind conditions will persist through the new week,
with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas
overnight and into the morning hours. Increased showers are
possible Monday night through midweek due to an upper-level
disturbance drifting westward across the state. Some showers may
briefly extend to the leeward areas of the smaller islands.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
No changes to the forecast this afternoon. High pressure is
expected to remain north of the islands through the new week, so
expect the moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern to
continue.

Afternoon soundings from Lihue and Hilo had the trade wind
inversion between 7000 and 8000 feet, and precipitable water (PW)
of 1.15 inches. Models suggest little change in the inversion
height through the upcoming week, while an increase in PW is
expected. The ECMWF shows an increase in PW by Monday morning
persisting through Wednesday, a brief decrease Thursday and then
another increase Friday. The GFS shows an increase by Tuesday
morning through Wednesday, decrease Thursday, and then not as much
of an increase Friday. In any event, the additional PW corresponds
with a mid to upper level low forming over the islands and then
drifting to the west. As such there could be some additional
showers Monday through Wednesday. With the breezy trades, some of
those showers could reach leeward areas at times.


&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue. Clouds and
light showers will favor east and northeast facing slopes and
coasts. An increase of showers are expected tonight, which could
bring periods of MVFR CIG or VIS along windward areas.

AIRMET TANGO is in effect for low level turbulence leeside of
terrain due to the gusty trade winds. AIRMET SIERRA will likely
return tonight along windward areas due to an increase of clouds
and showers.



&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered far northeast of the state will maintain
moderate to locally strong trade winds across the state over the
next several days. As the high shifts westward and strengthens
north of the state, trade winds will strengthen to fresh to near
gales during the second half of next week. A Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) remains in effect for the windier channels and waters
around Maui County and the Big Island through the weekend. This
SCA for the windier waters will likely continue and expand in
coverage during the second half of next week.

Surf along south facing shores will remain at High Surf Advisory
thresholds (10 feet for south facing shores) through tonight. Surf
heights will continue to gradually decrease as the swell fades
during the next few days. Mainly background energy is expected by
the middle of next week. A gale force low currently near 45S145W
could produce a small S to SSE swell next weekend, although most
of the energy is aimed well east of the islands.

North shore surf will remain small for the next few days. Small
medium period northwest pulses may provide a tiny bump from Sunday
night into middle of next week. Surf along east shores will
remain small and choppy throughout the first half of next week. An
increase is expected during the second half of next week as the
trades strengthen.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai
South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Leeward
South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South
Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION/MARINE...Kino