Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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262 FXUS64 KHGX 202339 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 639 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Conditions remain on track, so little changes have been made to the forecast. Ridging aloft and at the surface continue to control the weather pattern across the region, resulting in hot and humid conditions. Low-level moisture continues to surge inland, that combined with some sfc convergence is resulting to isolated showers over the coastal waters and along the Matagorda Island. These showers should gradually taper off by sunset. Expect another mild and muggy night with patchy fog, dense at times, developing through early morning. Similar weather conditions to today can be expected for Saturday as high pressure remains over us. Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s with overnight lows mainly in the upper 70s. JM && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 7:44am CDT on Sunday morning, which means that we`ll have finally reached Astronomical Fall and the temperatures will respond in kind...right?...RIGHT?! If only things worked that way...we`ll still be dealing with the effects of second summer as high temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s into midweek. As we head towards midweek, the ridge aloft gets nudged eastward by an approaching upper level trough with an embedded cutoff low. The exact path and timing of this upper level low remains uncertain, but there is generally consensus on eastward movement through the Central Plains towards or after midweek. As it slides past the Rockies, it`ll generate surface low pressure in the Southern Plains through lee cyclogenesis. This surface low will have a surface cold front associated with it that is currently expected to push through Southeast Texas in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. This`ll be a fairly weak front, but should be enough to usher in some drier air. Until then though, plenty of low-level moisture remains in place for the daily chances of afternoon showers/storms along the seabreeze to continue. While there is general consensus in a downward trend in temperatures towards the end of the long term period, it does come with quite a bit of uncertainty. We`re looking at about a 6-8F difference between the upper and lower quartiles of the NBM ensemble distribution, which means there are some members that don`t bring the cold front through. It`ll definitely be worth it to monitor forecast trends for signs pointing clearly one way or the other. We`re slightly hopeful that we can bring an end to second summer within the first week of Astronomical Fall! *fingers and toes crossed* Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the evening hours. There remains a chance of MVFR vis/cigs after 06Z, primarily away from the coast and outside of Houston`s urban heat island. Localized IFR is possible. Much like previous mornings, any sub VFR conditions will likely break by mid morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through Saturday afternoon. Winds will remain relatively light. However, a brief period of SE winds over 10 knots associated with the sea breeze will be possible in the afternoon and evening from IAH down to the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will persist into early next week. After midweek, winds and seas are expected to gradually climb towards caution flag territory. Daily chances for showers and storms will continue throughout the forecast period with chances increasing after the weekend. Batiste && .TROPICAL... Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico as an area of low pressure could develop by the early to middle part of next week. Gradual development of this system is possible and could result in the development of a tropical depression by late next week as it moves slowly northward or northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC currently has a 50% (medium) probability of formation over the next 7 days. This system has not yet developed, so it is still far too early to determine it`s track, intensity, or any specific impacts from it. Don`t put too much stock into any single deterministic model runs. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the NHC at www.hurricanes.gov. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 94 75 93 / 0 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 80 87 / 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...Self MARINE...Batiste