Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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490 FXUS64 KHGX 141728 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Ridging over Texas will continue to bring relatively benign weather over the weekend. Afternoon heating and low level confluence near a diffuse boundary may bring some isolated showers/storms this afternoon, primarily in areas north of I-10, closer to the Piney Woods/Lake Livingston area. Cannot rule out the potential for some weak, short-lived showers along the sea breeze, much like we saw Friday afternoon. Otherwise, 850mb temperatures & thicknesses are stilled progged to rise with the ridge shifting eastward, continuing the warming trend. Highs should reach the upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 70s, with isolated patchy fog possible during the early morning hours. Sunday will largely play out in a similar manner with a few small differences. The diffuse frontal boundary shifts further southwest, placing the highest rain chances west of I-45 Sunday afternoon. This shift comes as a result of the midlevel remnants of Francine sagging southward over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, along with a few impulses of shortwave energy passing overhead. With this, mean 500mb heights & thicknesses are also expected to ease up slightly on Sunday. Weakening of the upper level ridge`s influence could bring highs down a tad, but otherwise highs will still be in the upper 80s to upper 90s. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The workweek starts off with a Rex Block pattern across the eastern CONUS breaking down and transitioning to an Omega Block pattern across the center CONUS by mid-week. Southeast TX will be positioned to the east of the upper-level ridge axis through most of the period, suggesting drier and hot conditions. Subtle vort maxes embedded in the flow aloft will ride along the ridge early in the week. With strong subsidence/dry air prevailing, conditions are expected to remain relatively dry. Have only kept slight rain/storm chances along the coast to account for a few showers developing along the sea breeze. Again, forecast soundings continue to show a relatively dry profile; therefore, any activity should generally develop near the coast, which is where more moisture can be found. High temperatures will generally be 5 to 10 degrees above average, mainly for all inland counties. Heat indices into the 100 to 107 degF range can be anticipated with the warmest readings expected on Monday. JM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR prevailing through the afternoon. Isolated showers may occur north of I-10; not a high enough chance to mention in the current TAF package. Winds will be light and variable with patchy fog possible before sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Surface high pressure will continue to be centered over the northwestern Gulf through most of the period. This will result in light to occasionally moderate southwest to west winds through Sunday, then light onshore winds will prevail through the week, along with low seas. A few showers or storms will be possible offshore towards the end of the upcoming week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 99 75 98 74 / 10 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 97 77 96 76 / 0 20 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 89 77 88 77 / 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Adams MARINE...JM