085
FXUS64 KHGX 052347
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Light showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
southeastward and offshore this afternoon. Skies will be partly
cloudy tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s for much of the
area.

Heat and humidity will be the main headline for Thursday as we
continue to remain under the influence of high pressure. Highs
will be in the 90s inland and in the upper 80s along the coast.
Onshore winds will not be as strong, which will impact dew point
values (for the better!) and help keep heat index values generally
below 105F. A few locations may reach to above 105F. Continue to
exercise caution with the heat by staying hydrated, avoid
strenuous activity during the hottest time of day, and look before
you lock.

Thursday night`s lows will be in the mid 70s again Thursday
night, and a few degrees below the record breaking values that
have been observed the last few days.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Upper ridge centered over the Four Corners will finally move
eastward into TX on Friday, resulting in dry and hot conditions.
Surface high pressure will move overhead Friday night into Sunday,
thus, quiet weather should persist through at least Sunday. Any
activity that attempt to develop will need to overcome the cap
inversion.

Longer range models continues to show more confidence in a more
active weather pattern after Sunday, pushing a cold front into the
area. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms will be possible as
early as Sunday evening, continuing into Monday as the upper
trough and associated boundary make its way to our region. After
Monday, the pattern aloft becomes more favorable for several
disturbances moving overhead. Daily rain and storm chances will
continue through most of the upcoming week, especially during the
peak daytime heating/sea breeze interaction.

Temperature-wise, hot and humid conditions continue through the
weekend with above normal highs. A slight relief in temperatures
will be possible next week due to rain/storm chances; but overall,
highs will be into the upper 80s to low 90s degF range.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Tricky forecast tonight in that there is high confidence that one
of two scenarios will play out...and those two scenarios happen to
be completely different. In coordination with CWSU, have opted to
hedge the forecast to the pessimistic idea for this cycle, to
allow planning for a worse outcome. This means enough moisture
lingers after today`s rain along with very light to calm winds for
development of overnight stratus and/or fog, with MVFR conditions
emerging ~04Z around the area. This continues until ~14Z, when we
see rapid improvement to VFR conditions.

The other option? There`s simply not enough moisture to allow for
CIGs/fog to crop up, and we stay VFR through the night. Like the
other scenario, winds stay fairly light and variable. Eventually,
SE winds will resume, though it may not quite occur in this TAF
period.

Key thing will be to watch through the evening to see how reality
emerges, and will be prepared to match the forecast to the
scenario that ends up winning out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Moderate onshore winds and seas should gradually weaken/subside
this evening. Surface high pressure centered across the north-
central Gulf will continue to provide light to occasionally
onshore winds over the Upper TX coast. A weak cold front will
attempt to move over the coastal waters tonight into Thursday. No
major impacts are expected other than a brief wind shift through
midday Thursday. A few showers and storms will be possible
offshore during the remainder of the week; however, a general dry
trend can be expected through Sunday. The next best chance of
showers and storms return late Sunday into early next week as a
disturbance and frontal boundary move through. Light to
occasionally moderate onshore winds should persist through the
week and into the weekend.

The risk of strong rip currents continues through the end of the
week due to persistent onshore winds.

JM

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Going 5 for 5 would be an OUTSTANDING night for a baseball
player...going 5 for 5 on breaking record high minimum
temperatures isn`t quite as exciting. On June 4th, all five
climate sites either tied or broke their records for high minimum
temperatures as we saw widespread low temperatures in the low 80s.

- College Station: 80F (tied the record from 1902)
- Houston Intercontinental (Bush): 82F (breaks record of 80F
  from 1998)
- Houston/Hobby: 82F (breaks record of 81F from 1998)
- Palacios: 82F (breaks record of 80F from 2012)
- Galveston: 83F (breaks record of 81F from 2008)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  95  74  96 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  79  90  79  89 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...JM