451
FXUS64 KHGX 230811
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Ridging in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere should bring
warmer conditions into the beginning of next week. Abundant moisture
and weak capping could still allow for isolated showers/storms to
develop with afternoon heating, though regardless coverage will be
fairly limited. Minor coastal flooding remains a concern today for
the Bolivar Peninsula, with water levels expected to reach 3.5 ft
above MLLW later this morning with high tide. Coastal flood
advisories remain in effect across the Bolivar Peninsula until 11 PM
Tonight. Continue to exercise caution while traversing these areas
to allow waters to recede from any impacted roadways.

Highs will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s on Sunday and Monday,
with lows in the 70s to lower 80s near the coast. Heat indices are
expected to reach 101-107 during the afternoon hours. While a few
isolated spots could reach 108 or more, it doesn`t appear to be
widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for Today. Monday will
also be borderline as well. The heat risk through early next week
will be moderate (3/5) for most people participating in low-impact,
leisurely outdoor activities. However, those participating in
strenuous outdoor activities may feel major (4/5) heat stress. If
you plain to spent time outdoors, remember to drink plenty of
fluids, wear lightweight clothing and avoid strenuous outdoor
activities during the hottest part of the day.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

There will not be much of a pattern change through next weekend,
so you know what that means: hot and humid weather persists. A
ridge of high pressure aloft and moist southerly flow at the
surface will help keep high temperatures mid to upper 90s all week
long for most inland locations and upper 80s to low 90s along the
immediate coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s
for inland locations, and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.
Factor in the humidity during the daytime hours, max heat index
values will be 105-110 range all week, so Heat Advisories will
likely be needed.

The one break from the heat will be the daily chances of sea
breeze/daytime heating induced showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Where ever these storms pop up, they will likely help
cool the temperatures down by at least a few degrees. PWATs will
be around 1.5-1.8", so a quick downpour with these storms cannot
be out ruled either.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR, virtually SKC, with ESE to SE winds. Winds light early,
becoming 5-10 kts afternoon, then light again after sunset.
Potential for patchy fog pre-dawn, and an isolated shower/storm
afternoon...however, probability of either is too low at any TAF
sites to merit a mention explicitly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the week. Some lingering seas to 6ft will persist for the offshore
waters this morning, but then seas of 2-4ft will prevail through
the rest of the week. The high risk of strong rip currents will
continue today with minor coastal flooding possible along Bolivar
Island at high tide. There will be a daily chance of isolated
showers and thunderstorms during the late morning through the
afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  76  96  76 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  95  77  96  77 /  10   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  81  88  81 /  20   0  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for TXZ439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT early this
     morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler