669
FXUS64 KHGX 200444
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1144 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper level ridging centered over the TX Big Bend/northern MX
remains strong, resulting in little weather pattern change across SE
TX. At the surface, high pressure system continues overhead, leading
to light to occasionally moderate warm and humid onshore flow.
Overall, this pattern will keep us under a mostly dry, humid and hot
pattern in the next few days. Highs will generally range into the low
to mid 90s. Continue practicing heat safety as afternoon heat
indices into the 100 to 107 degF range can be expected. A few showers
will continue to develop along the coast, more towards the
Matagorda/Palacios area. Decent moisture convergence (more likely due
to sea breeze), and PW values into the 1.8 - 2.1 inch range are
resulting in these light showers today and then again on Friday.

Mild nights with mostly clear skies can be expected. Light winds and
residual moisture will once again lead to areas of fog, some locally
dense, across portions of the region. Most of this activity will be
patchy and/or low-lying and should persist through mid Friday
morning.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Hot and humid weather will continue on Sunday as the upper-level
ridge remains centered over the Western Gulf Coast. Afternoon high
temperatures will again be in the low to mid 90s along and north of
the US-59 corridor, and then mid to upper 80s along the coast with
heat indices rising into the upper 90s and into the triple digits
for much of the area. The ridge of high pressure will continue to
limit any afternoon shower or thunderstorm development. This high
pressure will gradually move further east into the Gulf through the
week, and possibly weaken - but guidance is rather uncertain on the
future strength of this ridge.

With the weakening subsidence aloft, we will see a very gradual
lowering of temperatures through the week - but still above normal.
High temperatures on Monday will be about 1-2 degrees cooler than
Sunday, then dropping another 1-2 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday
with much of the area getting high temperatures in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Not much of a cool down, but its something. The overnight
temperatures will still continue to be much above normal with lows
in the low to mid 70s for much of the area, and then mid to upper
70s in the Houston Metro and along the coast. The lower heights
aloft will also allow for the return of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to develop, especially along the seabreeze. So there
is a slight chance to a chance of rainfall each afternoon generally
along and south of I-45.

NHC continues to monitor a tropical wave in the Caribbean and gives
it a Medium, 40%, chance of development within the next 7 days as it
approaches the Yucatan. There is still much uncertainty with this
system, which hasn`t even formed yet, and the upper level pattern as
we go into the end of next week. Main takeaway is just continue to
follow the official forecasts from the NHC through the next several
days.

Fowler


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Confidence is increasing that there will be areas of MVFR cigs and
vis during the morning hours on Friday. However, there continues
to be some question regarding how widespread the reduced vis/cigs
will be, as well as uncertainty regarding if these lower cigs/vis
can push into Houston`s urban core and impact IAH and HOU. The
urban heat island in hot air masses can often help spare the urban
terminals from sub VFR conditions (especially regarding fog).
Therefore, we remain somewhat apprehensive to jumping on the
prevailing MVFR bandwagon at IAH and HOU. That being said, we have
added a higher end MVFR 10-13Z TEMPO group for IAH while lowering
the prevailing HOU vis down to 6SM BR for the same time period.
Cannot rule out needing to amend the forecast if trends more
strongly point towards sub VFR in the city. Any MVFR conditions
should lift by mid- morning, with VFR conditions and light winds
prevailing through the rest of the day. Sea breeze could bring SE
winds over 10 knots between the coast and Houston later in the
day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow (5-10kt during the day,
then 10-15kt during the overnight and early morning hours) and low
seas (1-3ft) will continue through the weekend and into next week.
There will be increased chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters beginning Sunday night and
continue through at least midweek next week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  75  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  96  77  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  80  89  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler