490
FXUS64 KHGX 141728
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Ridging over Texas will continue to bring relatively benign weather
over the weekend. Afternoon heating and low level confluence near a
diffuse boundary may bring some isolated showers/storms this
afternoon, primarily in areas north of I-10, closer to the Piney
Woods/Lake Livingston area. Cannot rule out the potential for some
weak, short-lived showers along the sea breeze, much like we saw
Friday afternoon. Otherwise, 850mb temperatures & thicknesses are
stilled progged to rise with the ridge shifting eastward, continuing
the warming trend. Highs should reach the upper 80s to upper 90s.
Overnight lows will be in the 70s, with isolated patchy fog possible
during the early morning hours.

Sunday will largely play out in a similar manner with a few small
differences. The diffuse frontal boundary shifts further southwest,
placing the highest rain chances west of I-45 Sunday afternoon. This
shift comes as a result of the midlevel remnants of Francine sagging
southward over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, along with a few
impulses of shortwave energy passing overhead. With this, mean 500mb
heights & thicknesses are also expected to ease up slightly on
Sunday. Weakening of the upper level ridge`s influence could bring
highs down a tad, but otherwise highs will still be in the upper 80s
to upper 90s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The workweek starts off with a Rex Block pattern across the
eastern CONUS breaking down and transitioning to an Omega Block
pattern across the center CONUS by mid-week. Southeast TX will be
positioned to the east of the upper-level ridge axis through most
of the period, suggesting drier and hot conditions. Subtle vort
maxes embedded in the flow aloft will ride along the ridge early
in the week. With strong subsidence/dry air prevailing, conditions
are expected to remain relatively dry. Have only kept slight
rain/storm chances along the coast to account for a few showers
developing along the sea breeze. Again, forecast soundings
continue to show a relatively dry profile; therefore, any activity
should generally develop near the coast, which is where more
moisture can be found.

High temperatures will generally be 5 to 10 degrees above
average, mainly for all inland counties. Heat indices into the 100
to 107 degF range can be anticipated with the warmest readings
expected on Monday.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR prevailing through the afternoon. Isolated showers may occur
north of I-10; not a high enough chance to mention in the current
TAF package. Winds will be light and variable with patchy fog
possible before sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to be centered over the
northwestern Gulf through most of the period. This will result in
light to occasionally moderate southwest to west winds through
Sunday, then light onshore winds will prevail through the week,
along with low seas. A few showers or storms will be possible
offshore towards the end of the upcoming week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  99  75  98  74 /  10  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  97  77  96  76 /   0  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  89  77  88  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...JM