Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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148 FXUS64 KHGX 162013 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As remnants of Francine transition eastward, a mid-upper level ridge will become more defined with the axis of the ridge cutting through the heart of Texas. As this ridge settles in, another low pressure system will swing down towards the Four Corners from the Pacific NW. This will begin the omega blocking pattern that has been discussed in the long-term for the last few days. While low pressure will sit on either side of the state, high pressure in our area will keep weather benign and on the warmer side. Lows for tonight will be in the upper 60s in the Piney Woods and in the 70s elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s along the coast and in the 90s inland. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Temperatures remain slightly above seasonally normal values during the extended period as the synoptic pattern remains dominated by an "omega block" with the prevailing ridge axis nearly overhead by Wednesday. A slight increasing trend in temperatures is expected through Friday as the aforementioned ridge strengthens, with global models indicating max 500mb heights in the vicinity of 590-592 dam. This will generally result in high temperatures in the mid/upper 90s for inland areas and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast. Overnight lows will generally remain in the 70s. While total PW values will recover somewhat by midweek to around 1.5 in, convection in the extended term will generally be limited by the presence of a subsidence inversion. That being said, a few isolated diurnally-driven storms offshore and perhaps along the coast can`t be totally ruled out for the weekend. However, the forecast as a whole remains generally rain-free. Heat index values remain forecast to exceed 100 through most of the extended period. While a Heat Advisory is not expected to be needed for the time being, heat safety precautions should still be considered if heading outdoors. Cady && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions will continue this afternoon with light, generally northeasterly, winds. Winds may shift as the sea breeze moves inland. Another round of patchy fog and low CIGs may develop overnight into the early morning hours Tuesday. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Generally calm marine conditions will prevail for the foreseeable future, with seas around 2 feet and winds around 5 to 10 knots. A few isolated showers or storms are possible heading into the weekend offshore, but strong storms are not expected. Winds will remain in an onshore orientation through the weekend. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 94 76 94 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 77 86 79 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Cady