Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
456 FGUS74 KHGX 191614 ESFHGX 200413- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 1114 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) probabilistic outlook for the Brazos River Basin in Southeast Texas... The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Brazos River at Richmond has a flood stage of 45 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Richmond forecast point will rise above 16.8 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations Valid 09/18/2024 - 12/17/2024 Location fs(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------------------------------------------------------------------- Brazos River Bryan 52.0 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.8 15.0 17.0 23.8 28.8 31.9 East Yegua Creek Dime Box 12.0 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 9.5 10.4 11.0 Middle Yegua Creek Dime Box 10.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 7.8 10.3 12.3 Davidson Creek Lyons 16.0 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 5.8 9.7 14.2 16.9 17.7 Navasota River Normangee 15.0 1.5 1.6 3.8 4.6 7.9 10.9 12.5 14.1 16.2 Mill Creek Bellville 20.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 4.5 5.8 6.9 8.8 12.2 15.6 Lower Brazos River Hempstead 50.0 12.5 13.9 14.9 15.6 17.7 23.0 29.0 35.3 41.1 San Felipe 122.5 94.2 94.7 95.1 95.6 96.9 99.3 103.2 110.3 116.9 Richmond 45.0 11.1 11.8 13.3 14.5 16.8 19.3 26.7 36.0 41.9 Rosharon 43.0 8.1 8.6 10.1 11.4 13.4 14.8 25.3 35.7 41.6 West Columbia 23.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.6 4.4 10.8 20.1 24.0 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx (internet address is all lower case). Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$