068
FXUS66 KHNX 251814
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1114 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures prevail
for the next several days.

2. Low afternoon humidity will occur, even with the slight
moderation in temperatures today and Thursday, in many locations
along with poor to moderate overnight recoveries in the
mountains and desert.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The region is going to close out September and usher in October feeling
more like summer than fall with above seasonable normal
temperatures. Outside of a few degree temperature shift daily,
not much variability expected through the forecast period as dry
southwest flow remains.

The biggest driver of our pattern is the trough across the
Mississippi River Valley and the tropical storm Helene entering
into the Gulf of Mexico. Those two features will merge in the
coming days keeping the ridge over the Central US.

However, a few weak and dry shortwave troughs will move through
the mean flow allow for the aforementioned slight changes in the
temperatures. While ensemble trends and clusters are in good
agreement there is some variances as the month comes to a close.

While there are some differences in how deep the trough in the
Pacific Northwest will be, it won`t have a lot of influence on
the sensible weather in Central California beyond the slight
drop in temperatures. However, by the end of the forecast period
and into week two things diverge due to the evolution of that
trough.

While the majority of ensemble members are keeping either zonal
flow or southwest flow in place next week, 14% of members are
pointing to a ridge building along the West Coast which could
increase temperatures some. Regardless, it appears the region
will continue to see a prolong our warm and dry period.


&&


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  09/24/2024 15:04
EXPIRES: 09/25/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
Meadows