Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
353 FXUS66 KHNX 200751 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1251 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Spotty showers in Kern County decreasing throughout the day Friday. 2. Warming trend into weekend with a 10 to 35 percent probability of triple digits on Tuesday. Dry conditions will prevail during this time. 3. With the warming trend into next week, humidity values will drop leading to an elevation of grass fire concerns especially in eastern Kern County. && .DISCUSSION... Right now, we are experiencing a few spotty showers dominantly in Kern County. These showers will taper off throughout the day today as the trough that brought this moisture slides east. Lightning remains a possibility with these showers. Latest model ensembles have a strong agreement that a ridge of high pressure starts sliding in today and builds in through the week. This ridge brings warming temperatures with the latest probabilities showing a 40 to 80 percent probability of high temperatures of at least 95 degrees on Monday and Wednesday. Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day with a 10 to 35 percent probability of triple digits for the Valley with Hanford. Thursday and next Friday shows a drop off in probabilities with a 35 to 45 percent probability of high temperatures of at least 95 degrees. These above average temperatures is favored to continue into the first week of October as the CPC has a 50 to 60 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. However, the fire concern remains with the drying and warming conditions especially for grass in Kern County. Winds will not factor as much due to it becoming more terrain driven. && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities near wildfires. MVFR and local IFR ceilings/visibility and SHRA until 00Z Saturday for the Kern County mountains. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JPK weather.gov/hanford