493
FXUS66 KHNX 161009
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
309 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A cooling trend will bring temperatures closer to seasonal
average for today. Monday temperatures will be around 3 to 5
degrees below normal.

2. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada,
will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along
rivers and waterways.

3. Strong wind gusts will develop along the Mojave Desert
Slopes each afternoon and overnight through Monday. Afternoon
and evening breezes will develop across the San Joaquin Valley
with locally gusty conditions near the passes of the West Side
Mountains through Monday.

4. The gusty winds coupled with low relative humidity will
bring elevated fire weather concerns to the Kern County
mountains and desert and the San Joaquin Valley through Monday
with a peak over the weekend.

5. Starting Tuesday a warming trend will begin with triple
digits anticipated starting Friday lasting through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough continues to swing down from the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon to reinforce the broad trough across
the western CONUS. The broad trough continues with reinforcing
Pacific Northwest upper waves through mid-week. The shift in the
pattern starts heading into next weekend. Here the heat dome
over the eastern CONUS ridge backs into the Desert Southwest as
a ridge over the Central Pacific builds to connect with it over
the Golden State. This ridge continues through the weekend with
upper level 500 MB heights nudging in the 590s. This supports
another probable heat wave, the specifics of how hot remains
debatable, the above normal temperatures look to hold on for
foreseeable future.

The impact weather, here on Sunday, remains with the very
strong winds over the Mojave Slopes. Breezy conditions for the
San Joaquin Valley. Then trending down on temperatures. The
probability of wind gusts exceeding 60 mph for the Mojave Slopes
this evening and over are near 100 percent at the Highway 58
and Highway 14 junction near the town site of Mojave spreading
north and south along Highway 14. There is a 40 to 60 percent
chance the wind gusts exceed 70 mph in that area. Even a 20
percent chance of Hurricane force wind gusts on the Slopes just
east of Frazier Park. The High Wind Warning will continue with
the high impact to transportation expected for the
aforementioned region. The Breezy and dry weather impacts focus
on fire weather, see below, impacts for the region.
Temperatures probabilities for daily maximums probability to
remain below 93 degrees this afternoon range from 64 to 89
percent.

Monday the focus on the impact continues with Mojave Slope
winds and San Joaquin Valley below normal temperatures and
breezy conditions. The probability of wind gusts exceeding 60
mph lowers on Monday, however poses a continued risk to
transportation, to 20 to 60 percent with the highest probability
being to the southwest of the town site of Mojave. The chance of
temperatures remain below 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley
ranging from 84 to 98 percent, and even remaining below 85
degrees the probability range is 14 to 39 percent.

Tuesday beings the turn around on San Joaquin Valley
temperatures and the relaxing of the Mojave Slope winds. The PoE
of 90 degrees (near normal readings) ranges from 51 to 91
percent across the Valley.

Wednesday through Friday the temperatures slowly trend up to the
100 degree mark by Friday. The PoE of 100 degrees on Friday
range from 26 to 41 percent. Confidence is fair looking at
Fresno Air Terminal point the mid percentile (25th to 75th
percentile for stats enthusiasts) ranges from 97 to 102 degrees
on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday the cluster analysis of the upper heights is
of better than expected levels of confidence with ridging
centered over the western CONUS, the main difference will be
where this ridge axis is located. The range remains from just
off the California coast for the western extent to the Great
Basin on the eastern side. Provides enough uncertainty providing
some hope to avoid a major excessive heat episode. Focus on the
urban hot spot of Fresno for Saturday and Sunday the mid-
percentiles range with maximum temperatures from 101 to 108. The
impactful concern is the overnight low temperatures with
moderate to high confidence of 70 to 74 degrees not allow for
good cooling recovery. Looking at the PoE of 105 degrees for
Saturday and Sunday the range is 31 to 51 percent for the Valley
locations. When focusing over the Kern County Desert the PoE of
110 remains low with the range from 11 to 51 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for
the next 24 hours. Local reductions of visibility near fires and
along the Mojave Slopes in the Kern County Desert.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The region has elevated fire weather risk. The drier fine fuels
have sparked a few fires around the region over the recent
past. This afternoon`s concern continues for along the Mojave
Slopes, near the Grapevine, and western hills. The best
probability of 20 mph wind and less than 20 percent humidity
continues in those regions with near 100 probability from I-5
extending northeast along the Mojave Slopes. Monday elevated
fire danger spreads along I-5 on the western side of the San
Joaquin Valley and in the Merced/Madera/Fresno region of the
SJV. The probability of winds greater than 20 mph and relative
humidity below 20 percent increases along I-5 to 60 to 100
percent. The Merced/Madera/Fresno regions 30 to 60 percent
probability with those same parameters. This coupled with the
fine fuels has prompted the Storm Prediction Center`s Fire
Weather Unit to highlight the region for an elevated fire
weather risk.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  06/15/2024 12:56
EXPIRES: 06/16/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
DSS/PIO....AS

weather.gov/hanford