Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
680 FXUS66 KHNX 282024 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 124 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue across central California with maximum temperatures expected to rise above 100 degrees again over the lower elevations by Saturday and above 105 degrees by next Tuesday. 2. Temperatures will approach 110 degrees in the valley and desert areas Wednesday, with triple digit heat continuing into next weekend. The heat risk moves into the Extreme level starting on Wednesday and lasting into next weekend. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Tuesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... The upper levels feature a very weak trough today last through Sunday before the change in the pattern occurs. Starting late on Monday a strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific ocean with heights nearing 600 DM at 500 MB begins it slow progression into the Golden State. On Wednesday the Pacific ridge meets up with the persistent ridge over the Southeastern CONUS to form a strong latitudinal ridge from north of Hawaii across to the central Atlantic Ocean. This ridge wobbles around however holds place over and near California through the foreseeable future. Starting out here this afternoon through Sunday expect a slow warming trend to continue from today`s near normal temperatures and bumping up to 100 degree mark by Sunday and moving past it on Monday. Here is a chart of PoE of 100 degrees for selected cities across Central California Saturday through Monday. Location SAT SUN MON Merced 26% 26% 66% Madera 31% 16% 61% Fresno 71% 51% 86% Reedley 21% 11% 31% Hanford 56% 46% 66% Visalia 71% 51% 81% Delano 71% 56% 71% Bakersfield 71% 51% 71% Edwards AFB 86% 91% 96% China Lake NAF 91% 96% 96% Tuesday through the upcoming Holiday weekend. The heat increases into the levels where health concerns are near extreme levels. Taking a look at PoE`s across the region. Starting out at 105 degrees on Tuesday the range runs from 31 to 61 percent in the San Joaquin Valley, and 76 to 86 percent in the Kern County Desert. On Wednesday the PoE of 105 moves up to 76 to 86 percent for the SJ Valley and 86 to 91 percent in the Kern County Desert. The PoE of 105 Thursday through Saturday ranges from 40 to 70 percent for the SJ Valley and above 80 percent for the Kern County Desert. Looking up to Wednesdays record highs for the climate stations in the San Joaquin Valley here is the probability of setting a new record high temperature. Location Record Year Set Probability to Exceed Bakersfield 111 1942 16% Fresno 110 2001 31% Merced 109 1991 36% Madera 110 1937 11% Hanford 110 1937 16% The heat risk is the primary impact with overnight lows during the excessive heat watch period only falling into the mid to upper 70s in the urban areas. The probabilities of staying above 75 degrees from the 3rd of July through the 6th of July is 50 to 70 percent for the Fresno Metro area and Bakersfield. This heat wave back on the 22nd and 23rd of June was in the major impacts level. The upcoming heat wave moves into the extreme category. Taking precautions ahead of this event for possible power and extreme is a prudent measure prior to the event. && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibility due to smoke in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills south of King Canyon. Wind gusts above 35 knots are possible in the Mojave Desert Slopes through 15Z this morning, producing local blowing dust. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... The wind will continue to be light terrain driven through the next several days. Temperatures will continue to trend upward the the period and relative humidity is expected to continue with readings in the afternoon in the teens and poor overnight recoveries. No thunderstorms are expected during the next several day. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... Air Quality Alert due to smoke impacts from wildfires. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through late Friday night for CAZ300>322-324-332-334-336-338. && $$ Proton weather.gov/hanford