Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
530 FXUS66 KHNX 151041 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 341 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cooling trend will bring temperatures closer to seasonal averages for the weekend. Monday temperatures will be around 3 to 6 degrees below normal. 2. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along rivers and waterways. 3. Strong wind gusts will develop along the Mojave Desert Slopes each late afternoon through overnight through Monday. Afternoon and evening breezes will develop across the San Joaquin Valley with locally gusty conditions near the passes of the West Side Mountains through Monday. 4. The gusty winds coupled with low relative humidity will bring elevated fire weather concerns to the Kern County mountains and desert and the San Joaquin Valley through Monday with a peak over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... After a few triple digit days this week, a cooldown is in order for this weekend and into early next week. Two low pressure systems moving successively into the Pacific Northwest will lower heights and allow temperatures to drop down to near normal. By Monday, temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley will be at a pleasant mid to high 80s, 3-6 degrees below normal for this time of year, with only a 30 to 50 percent chance of high temperatures reaching 90 degrees. Beginning on Tuesday, temperatures will warm back up. These two low pressure systems will bring dry, cool air into the area, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in gusty, dry conditions over the weekend. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes and is valid through Monday night. The NBM shows very high probabilities - 90 to 100 percent - of wind gusts near 50 mph for the afternoon and evenings through Monday. In the West Side Hills, for tomorrow and Monday evening, there is an 80 to 90 percent chance of wind gusts near 40 mph. As the low pressure systems track eastward across the United States and out of the area, temperatures will begin gradually rising on Tuesday. In the wake of these low pressure systems, a strong ridge will begin to form by the end of the week, increasing temperatures considerably for next weekend. On Friday, there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of triple digits returning to the San Joaquin Valley. On Saturday, and through at least Monday night, those probabilities rise to 80 to 90 percent. Stay tuned as we get closer to next weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Very low minimum relative humidity values throughout the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County Desert combined with the strong winds from the low pressure system will result in an enhanced fire risk through the weekend, with the peak occurring on Monday. Relative humidity will drop to the teens in the valley and into single digits in the Kern County Desert. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that on Monday, June 17, there is a 40 to 69 percent chance of fire weather in the western parts of Fresno, Madera, and Mariposa County, as well as nearly all of Merced County. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 06/14/2024 12:53 EXPIRES: 06/15/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ338. High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation/fire weather...AS PIO/IDSS.......................VJP weather.gov/hanford