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FXUS66 KHNX 172002
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
102 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. There is a 60 percent probability for 0.10 inch or more of
rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley on Thursday and a 15 to 30
percent probability for 0.25 inch or more.

2. There is a 50 to 85 percent probability for 0.25 inch or
more of rainfall across the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County
north and less than a 50 percent probability south of Fresno
County. There is a 25 percent probability for 0.50 inch or more
of rainfall in Yosemite Valley on Thursday.

3. There is a 65 percent probability for 3 inches or more of
snowfall at Tioga Pass on Thursday and a 45 percent probability
for 4 inches or more. Snow levels will be above 9,000 feet.

4. There is up to a 30 percent chance for thunderstorms across
the Sierra Nevada on Thursday, highest around Yosemite NP. There
is a 10 to 15 percent chance for thunderstorms across the San
Joaquin Valley on Thursday and areas from Fresno County
northward on Wednesday.

5. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal through
Thursday before a weekend warmup.

.DISCUSSION...
The cooler weather pattern continues until Thursday before a
warming trend begins Friday into early next week. For today,
mainly clear skies prevail, along with below average
temperatures. The chance of a high temperature reaching 80
degrees or lower is about 40 to 70 percent in much of the SJ
Valley and the Kern County desert today until Thursday (although
with higher chances until Wednesday for areas north of Fresno
County).

An unsettled pattern returns Wednesday and Thursday with an
upper-level low passing southward along the Central CA coast
and eventually inland into Southern CA. High temperatures of 10
to 15 degrees below seasonal average will continue until
Thursday. Precipitation begins by Wednesday afternoon. A Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for elevations above 9,000
feet from Wednesday afternoon until Thursday evening. With the
upper-level low comes cold and unstable air which will produce a
chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. On Wednesday,
expect showers and thunderstorms mainly for Fresno County
northward, but activity shifts southward by Thursday, including
to Kern County. Some convective snow showers are possible down
to around 8,000 or 8,500 feet with this system at times. A
probability of 35 to 55 percent exists for at least four inches
of snow towards Tioga Pass and the highest elevations of
Yosemite NP, as well as locations to the south, or to Sequoia
NP. After Thursday evening, expect the upper-level trough to
pass mainly into interior portions of Southern CA with the
warming trend to begin by Friday. The rainfall amounts and
corresponding probabilities, as well as thunderstorm chances,
mentioned above remain on track.

High temperatures return to the 90`s in the Central Valley by
this weekend due to high pressure rebuilding. Above average
temperatures prevail throughout the forecast area into next
week, with the hottest temperatures reaching into the mid-upper
90`s by next Tuesday.

&&


.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities near wildfires.
Mountain obscurations over the Sierra Nevada after 18Z
Wednesday due to RA/SN showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT
Thursday for CAZ323-326-328-330.
&&

$$

BSO

weather.gov/hanford