Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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325 FXUS64 KHUN 030812 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The cloud shield associated with the complex of thunderstorms in Lousiana is starting to stream into the TN Valley. These mid level clouds are mitigating fog development W of I-65, but creating lower ceilings. East of I-65, the RGB Nighttime Satellite imagery shows fog filling the valleys and reducing visibilities as low as 1/2 mi at this hour. Fog and low ceilings will improve with sunrise. Rest of today, high sfc pressure remains off to our east and it will be humid and warm with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Have low chances (20%) of showers and thunderstorms in mainly for this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Tonight, low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms will linger ahead of a shortwave that will make its way in on Tuesday. This will bring medium chances (60%) of showers/storms across the board by Tuesday afternoon that will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. On Wednesday, an upper level low gliding just north of the U.S. and Canadian border but NW of the Great Lakes will run into a blocking pattern. The associated sfc low will have a cold front extending down the MS Valley. There continues to be model disagreement on the timing of the front, however expecting to see medium to high chances (60-80%) of showers/storms on Wednesday ahead of the front when a weak shortwave also swings through. Forecast soundings are showing some instability and 75th percentile or higher PWATS, thus storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Will have to monitor how far south the bulk of the convection will end up on Wednesday, as that will determine adjustments to QPF values and any hydro concerns. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 By Thursday, the shortwave axis will be off the Atlantic Coast and a sfc front will move its way through the area. This will bring an end to showers and storms from north to south Thursday morning, but will maintain low chance (20-30%) PoPs during the afternoon giving model differences in timing at this range. Highs will be near seasonal norms in the mid to upper 80s with clearing skies during the afternoon. A stronger sfc front will arrive Friday, reinforcing dry and cooler conditions as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will be limited to the lower 80s Friday afternoon as sfc high pressure drifts south. From there, we will stay under the influence of northwest flow through the remainder of the long term forecast. Overnight lows will be relatively chilly Friday night into Saturday morning, falling into the upper 50s in the higher terrain and near 60 degrees elsewhere. Low chance PoPs (20-30%) will return late in the weekend as a series of weak shortwaves are progged to move into the area, also bringing better moisture. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Conditions are VFR at this time, however expecting VIS to drop to MVFR or lower at times with fog development, especially between 09-12Z. Once fog dissipates, VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...JMS