816
FXUS64 KHUN 312311 CCA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
553 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A weak area of low pressure was moving to the NE over the eastern
Red River Valley of OK/TX, and bringing an increase in clouds to
the area. Despite the thickening clouds, area temperatures have
warmed into the low/mid 80s, with SE winds of 5-15 mph. Showers
preceding this system were beginning to overspread the MS/AL
border mainly south of I-22. So far, lightning activity with these
approaching showers was confined south of the I-20 corridor.

Thoughts from previous forecast guidance remain similar, bringing
higher rain chances to the area tonight. Output from the various
models were in reasonable agreement with one another with
increasing rain chances from west to east in the overnight.
Although most of the precipitation will be showers, enough lift
and modest shear could result in thunderstorms mixed in. Lows
tonight should cool into the low/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

For the weekend and early next week, an unsettled pattern is
forecast with chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
picture. The ARW/FV3 and longer term models all indicated numerous
to widespread showers and thunderstorms impacting the area on
Saturday. With plenty of cloud cover and high rain chances,
temperatures will trend cooler than today. Highs Sat should only
warm in to the mid/upper 70s. The NBM`s low/mid 70s looked too
cool so boosted them up a few degrees.

The heaviest showers move more to the east Sat night with lesser
rain chances expected Sunday. Rainfall totals over the area should
range from 1/2" east to over 1.5" west. The higher amounts of rain
over our western areas could run-off, resulting in a risk of
flooding and flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has a
slight risk for our western 2/3s of our area on Sat, main due to
runoff from Fri night into Saturday morning rain totals. With more
sun peeking through, high temperatures to start the new week
should rise into the lower 80s. Convection chances appear to
become more on a diurnal trend, with higher odds Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A shortwave across the TN Valley will start off the unsettled
pattern that will persist through mid week. An upper level trough
in the Northern Plains will develop a sfc low and associated cold
front on Tuesday. Another shortwave will slide out ahead of this
system to keep low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms in the
forecast through Tuesday. The sfc low will remain up in the Great
Lakes or just north of there, the cold front will push southeast
into the region on Wednesday. We will see an uptick in the
coverage of showers and storms (30-50%) before the front pushes
through on Thursday. Not expecting severe storms at this time, but
will monitor trends as we get closer to the event.

Ahead of the front, daytime highs will start off in the lower 80s
and climb to encroach 90 degrees by Wednesday with lows around 70
degrees. Behind the front, temps will only slightly improve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A narrow line of showers continues to develop well southwest of
the KMSL terminal at this hour. Expect this activity to mainly
move NNW and not affect the terminal through 02Z. However, kept a
PROB30 group in in case this activity expands far enough eastward
during that period. Expect the bulk of rain and thunderstorms to
move northeast into the KMSL terminal closer to 08Z and the KHSV
terminal around 09Z, expect CIGS to drop to MVFR or lower around
that timeframe. This should be a persistent and widespread area
of RA and -TSRA. Southeast winds around 10 knots should increase
early this evening and especially after midnight (sustained around
10 knots with gusts to 20 knots). A timeframe of 10Z to 14Z at
the KMSL terminal and 12Z to 16Z was highlighted for heavier -TSRA
for now. During this period, some IFR or lower CIGS or VSBYS
could occur. Expect conditions to improve some after these tempo
groups, when VSBYS or CIGS could become predominantly MVFR again.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...KTW