252
FXUS64 KHUN 060532
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 943 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Severe storms have moved through the area this evening, generally
weakening as they have tracked northeast. Gusty winds remain a
threat over northeast AL and southern middle TN for the next 30
minutes to an hour until the gust front clears our area. Behind
this, can expect light to moderate stratiform rain with occasional
thunder through the early overnight hours, with activity coming to
an end from west to east by morning ahead of an approaching cold
front. May have a few isolated showers lingering after sunrise,
but no additional strong to severe storms are expected. Will have
to monitor for patchy fog development if clouds begin to clear
near sunrise, but confidence is not high enough to include in the
forecast with this update. Otherwise, expect lows in the upper 60s
with light southwesterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Any lingering morning convection will quickly sweep eastward into
Georgia and a drier air mass will sweep into the area in wake of
the cold front that will push into the region on Thursday. Cloud
cover will also dissipate, making for a beautiful afternoon with
plenty of sunshine, highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lower RH
values between 45-55 percent. Thursday evening/night will be quite
comfortable as this drier air mass filters in, with overnight lows
dropping into the lower 60s in most locations underneath a clear
sky. High pressure at the surface on Friday will make for another
beautiful, sunny day as highs will climb into the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Looks like we will be stuck in this northwesterly flow pattern
through the extended forecast. An upper low straddling Ontario and
Quebec will be anchored there and a few shortwaves will round the
trough providing us chances of rain through Monday. The associated
sfc low will have a cold front extending through the OH Valley and
back into the Lower MS Valley that will head into the TN Valley and
Southeast this weekend. Ahead of these features, cloud cover will
increase on Saturday and low chances (20-30%) of showers and
thunderstorms will return. Coverage will increase to ~40% on Sunday
as the front draws near. During this time, a lobe of energy will
phase with the upper level trough, shifting it eastward. The GFS is
the most progressive with this and wants to bring in ridging by
Monday. Will wait for better model consensus and instead stick with
the NBM on keeping low chance of POPs in through Monday. Cooler and
drier air will filter in behind the front, providing drier conditions
and more sunshine on Tuesday. Daytime highs through the extended
will be near or slightly below seasonable values, staying in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows on the other hand will remain warm
through the weekend and become more seasonable behind the front
returning to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

An area of mostly lgt/mdt RA, the remnants of recent convection,
remains in the area. However, it is not anticipated that any
significant impacts will take place from this area of RA as it
continues to gradually dissipate. However, low stratus with MVFR
bases are anticipated to develop and affect TAF sites later this
morning. An upr trough and associated CDFNT will continue to
cross the region this morning, with a wind shift from the WNW
anticipated at KMSL ~14Z and at KHSV ~15Z. However, winds may
generally remain below 7kts after FROPA.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...KDW