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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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764 FXUS64 KHUN 231936 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A broken line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms ahead of a surface cold front continues to progress southeast over Tennessee this afternoon. This activity has been pretty meager over the past couple of hours, but model guidance suggests redevelopment this evening over southern middle Tennessee and northwest Alabama that will progress southeast over northern Alabama through late evening. Bulk shear looks to range between 10-20 knots, with instability values between 1500-2500 J/kg (especially early this evening). Therefore, while a strong storm with some gusty winds cannot be ruled out, confidence in any severe weather is pretty low. Shower/storm activity is expected to dwindle into the overnight hours. Some patchy fog development is then possible late tonight into early Monday morning. Overnight low temperatures will be warm, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday Night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Northwest flow aloft will persist into Monday, but upper ridging will begin to push back into the region for Tuesday. Although, this will be short-lived as an upper shortwave looks to move over the Mississippi Valley and towards the Tennessee Valley Tuesday night. At the surface, the cold front that brought low chances of showers in the near term will move to our south. High pressure will build in behind it and progress southeastward over the Appalachians through Tuesday. Overall, no rain chances are anticipated Monday through Tuesday evening. Very low chances (10-15%) of showers return to northwest Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning ahead of a system slated to move through the area on Wednesday (discussed in the section below). It will be hot early next week as high temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s. Continued elevated moisture will cause "feels like" temperatures (heat indices) to be in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees on Monday. It`ll be a bit warmer on Tuesday, with heat indices forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 102 degrees east of I-65 and between the upper 90s to around 103-104 degrees on Tuesday (perhaps a few areas around 105 in far northwest Alabama). While these values are below Heat Advisory criteria, we urge caution. Remember heat safety! Wear loose- fitting, light-colored clothing, take frequent breaks in the shade, and stay hydrated! Also, take caution for your pets as well! Be cautious of the hot pavement, make sure they have ample water and shade, and limit their time outdoors. The aforementioned cold front will bring a slight reprieve Monday night, allowing lows to dip into the mid to upper 60s. However, warm conditions return Tuesday night with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A shortwave and possibly MCS in the central Plains will arrive in the TN valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could factor into our temperature forecast which right now says lower to middle 90s. However, PoPs will be increasing to the 30-50% range Wednesday into Wednesday night. Although sustained large scale heavy rain is not foreseen at this point, a few areas of 0.25-0.50 inch totals look obtainable. This will be followed by a weakening frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Notice I didn`t even mention the word cold. Southerly low level flow will develop Friday into Saturday, bringing sustained higher dew points in the 70s along with the hot temperatures, thus increasing the potential for excessive heat index values and risk into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions will largely prevail through Monday. A broken line of showers/storms is currently moving over Tennessee and may hold together to bring low shower/storm chances (15-30%) to the terminals later this afternoon and into this evening. No rain is then anticipated overnight through Monday morning. Some patchy fog development is possible overnight; however, confidence in occurrence at the terminals was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Northwest winds between 5-10 knots this afternoon will persist through early this evening before becoming light and variable tonight. Light north winds are then anticipated by mid- morning on Monday. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...26