628
FXUS64 KHUN 151950
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Very hot conditions prevailing across the Tennessee Valley, with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s this afternoon -- with heat
index values between 94-102 degrees at this hour. Those with
outdoor plans for the remainder of the day should consider
limiting their time outdoors and those most vulnerable to heat
should take extra precautions and make sure they remain in air
conditioning. The afternoon Cu field will quickly diminish
resulting in clear conditions once again with very warm low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s -- providing very limited
relief to the heat overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

What could be the hottest day of the year so far will arrive for
Fathers Day (Sunday), with the ridge setting up just east of the
area -- with mid to perhaps upper 90s highs forecast over a vast
majority of the forecast area once again. Slightly higher
dewpoints will put peak heat index values between 100-104 over
much of the area, with the HSV/DCU/MSL metro areas potentially
reaching 105 degrees for at least an hour or two. Limited amount
of Apparent T values greater than 105 prevented a Heat Advisory
issuance for now, but it should be noted that major heat impacts
to vulnerable populations may be felt tomorrow from the late
morning through the afternoon. Those that are sensitive heat
should take extra precautions and everyone should use common sense
and limit their time outdoors during the peak heating of the day.
Additionally, low chances for showers/storms will return to the
forecast Sunday afternoon -- favored along the higher terrain of
NE Alabama. This activity will pulse like in nature and very
limited in duration and intensity. Main threats with the strongest
storms will be localized gusty winds.

The ridge will become centered further east over the Carolinas,
with southerly flow continuing to advect moisture back into the
area on Monday. Low chances for diurnally driven storms will exist
again Monday afternoon/evening, but highs will be cooler in the
lower 90s. Stronger subsidence will limit our potential for
convection on Tuesday, but continued mostly sunny to partly cloudy
conditions will push highs into the lower 90s again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Strong upper level high pressure on Tuesday should be situated over
the Mid Atlantic with maximum heights around 594 decameters. It will
build somewhat more to the NE, and amplify to near 600 decameters
over the New York City region Wednesday, then weaken somewhat and
build more southward in the latter portion of next week. Despite
the presence of the upper ridge, deep moisture from the Gulf
surging inland will keep more clouds than sun in the forecast on
Tue/Wed. This moisture with precipitable water amounts nearing 2
inches across parts of NW Alabama will keep lower end chances of
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Despite the clouds and rain
chances, rather warm and muggy conditions are forecast with highs
rising to around 90, and heat index values into the mid/upper 90s.

The moisture surge should be suppressed more to our west late
Wednesday into Thursday, thus back to dry conditions for the rest of
the abbreviated work week. High temps on Juneteenth/Wednesday will
warm into the lower 90s, and mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Heat index
values on Wed should range in the lower 90s, and mid 90s for Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period,
with light winds and a mostly clear sky.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...AMP