Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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757 FXUS64 KHUN 121402 AAA AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 902 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 902 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 With surface high pressure maintaining its hold over the Tennessee Valley, another dry, mild day is in store with upper level clouds streaming overhead. Temperatures are still forecast to warm up through the end of the week, so enjoy the day today! Other than a slight adjustment for dew points based on recent Hi- Res guidance, no major changes were needed to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Ongoing ridging in the SW CONUS will strengthen and progress east through the duration of the short term bringing with it very hot and dry (in the terms of precip) weather. The translation of the 500 MB ridge east across the CONUS will start a warming trend with temps heating into the low 90s on Thursday. By the weekend, the ridge will be centered nearly on top of us resulting in the progression of high temps into the mid to high 90s by Saturday with temps peaking on Sunday. A surge of moisture ahead of a front to our north will only increase the heat risk through the weekend. With dew points in the high 60s arriving for the weekend, heat index values soar into the 100s Saturday and Sunday. With stout ridging provide ample subsidence below it, there will be little in the way of heat relief as both cloud cover and winds will be incredibly light each day. That being said it will be increasingly important that individuals take the precautions necessary to keep safe from both the sun and the heat through the weekend. This includes wearing proper sun protection and avoiding heat exhaustion by taking frequent breaks in shade and staying hydrated. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The long term forecast poses the question when will we see rain and heat relief? Unfortunately the answer remains somewhat uncertain. By Sunday night there will likely be ongoing convection in the southern Gulf associated with a Gulf low somewhere near the Yucatan. Models diverge on how far north both the Gulf moisture and eventual rain associated with this feature will make it. The GFS favors weakening ridging and a more northward track of gulf moisture bringing us rain and clouds for the start of the work week. The Euro favors stronger ridging suppressing all rain chances and yielding additional days in the high 90s. For this issuance, kept low rain chances in through the long term with cloudy conditions limiting temps to the low 90s. As this period moves closer in time, guidance will become more clear on when heat relief and rain will arrive. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 With light northerly winds and clear skies, VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals for the duration of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...RAD