614
FXUS64 KHUN 172309
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
609 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

High pressure remains in control across the Tennessee Valley for the
rest of the day and into tonight. This should help to limit most
weather activity, though a few showers are possible in western areas
of the CWA this evening as there is slightly higher moisture in
those areas. With SBCAPE values around 2000 J/kg, a locally strong
storm may be possible. However, due to the very weak shear,
"pulse" thunderstorms will be the main storm mode, with localized
gusty winds being the main threat. After sunset, clouds/convection
will dissipate, resulting in a mostly clear/dry overnight period.
Overnight lows will be mild once again, bottoming out in the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The upper-level ridge should remain over the Central Appalachians
and Mid Atlantic, away from the Tennessee Valley, though should
still influence our weather through the middle of the week.
Synoptic- scale subsidence should still limit rain chances though
the next few days (less than 10%). Drier dewpoints in the 50s and
60s, should also move in by Wednesday. In other words, very
similar weather through Thursday, with highs in the 90s and lows
in the 70s under mostly clear skies and surface winds generally
out of the south, up to 10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Dry conditions with very warm to hot conditions are expected to
continue for the remainder of the work week, thanks to strong upper
level ridging situated over the eastern Lower-48. The 500mb depiction
of this ridge has it amplifying to near 600 decameters height values
in the Thursday to early Friday timeframe. The upper ridge should
weaken somewhat as it settles more to the south this weekend, and
then replaced early next week as mean troughing builds in from the
north. While the upper ridge is in place and under partly cloudy
skies, highs on Thu should warm into the lower 90s. As the ridge
heads southward, subsidence under it should help make for more sunny
skies over the Tennessee Valley. More solar insolation should result
in the heat returning, with highs temperatures in the Friday-Sunday
time frame soaring into the mid 90s, with mid/upper 90s on Sat and
especially Sun. Corresponding heat index values in 90s Thu/Fri should
rise to around 100 degrees on Sat, and in the 99-104 degree range
Sun.

The models have backed off of a potential tropical born system moving
over the SE coast Thu/Fri, instead are focusing the deepest tropical
moisture over the Gulf and Caribbean. This moisture should be
directed more to our west, keeping the area rain free for the most
part in the latter half of the week. However, more moisture should
return on Sun, and bring isolated showers/thunderstorm chances to the
area. Rain chances may go up as we go into the next week, as a more
unsettled pattern possibly returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with light,
southeasterly winds overnight into Tuesday morning. Tuesday
afternoon, southeasterly gusts up to 15-16 kts are possible. There
is a very low chance some shower development may occur this
evening around KMSL, however, confidence is too low to include it
in the official TAF product. Therefore, amendements may be needed.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....Serre
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...HC