Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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096 FXUS64 KHUN 100153 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 853 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 853 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Weak cold front has just about moved southward thru all of north AL this Sun evening. While most of the lingering showers/tstms have moved just south of the area, some additional light/moderate showers out of west/mid TN associated with an upper trough axis dropping southward thru the region is beginning to cross into NW AL. Some additional showers, along with a few elevated tstms, are likewise possible for much of the mid TN Valley thru the remainder of the evening hrs, before rainfall tapers off to the SE heading into the overnight period. With the passage of the front, slightly cooler/drier air will filter into the area from the north, thereby allowing lows into early Mon to fall into the lower/mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Rain chances will wane by early Monday morning as cloud cover gradually diminishes from north to south on Monday. A cooler, drier air mass will move into the region early next week and we`ll enjoy high temperatures only in the low to mid 80s for Monday and Tuesday, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s -- all to go along with sunny conditions each day. Ridging will amplify by midweek and a gradual warming trend will begin on Wednesday and carry over into the later part of the week. More on this in the section below. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Although specific details remain unclear at this point, most of the global models now suggest that that southern stream trough (discussed above) will travel southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico during the first half of the extended period, before evolving into nearly stationary cutoff low on Friday/Friday night. Any northward movement of the low next weekend will likely be dictated by the strength and orientation of a blocking mid-level ridge to its north, which will in all likelihood lie across the TN Valley, providing an extended period of warm and dry conditions that could potentially extend into the first part of the following week. That said, we have included a very low (15-20%) POP across our southeastern counties on Friday and Saturday afternoons, due to a gradual increase in low-level moisture which will translate to a notable increase in CAPE given hot daytime temperatures. Highs will quickly warm into the lower 90s for most valley locations by Thursday/Friday/Saturday, with lows more gradually returning to the u60s-l70s by Saturday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Weak cold front is currently moving south into parts of NW/north central AL heading into the evening hrs this Sun. This should help deflect any convective activity to the south of the two main terminals, although some AMDs may be necessary over the next 1-2 hrs should any shra/tsra develop closer to the airfields. VFR conds should otherwise prevail into Mon, as mid/high cloud cover gradually diminishes. NNW winds near 7-8kt will also turn north around 5-7kt Mon morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...09