001
FXUS64 KHUN 241106
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
606 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A broken line of of showers and storms along/just ahead of a weak
front that originated in middle TN has slowly fallen apart as it
treks southward into AL. Latest CAMs suggest this trend will
continue heading through the rest of the morning. While we cannot
completely rule out a thunderstorm, chances are quite low (15-20%)
through daybreak. Light winds throughout the early morning hours should
prevent fog development.

The post frontal airmass will allow for some drier air to filter
into the TN Valley. However, it will still be quite warm this
afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs are still
expected to reach into the mid 90s, but with dewpoints mixing out
into the low to mid 60s, heat index values only top out in the mid
to upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A seasonable summer evening is forecast for tonight with light
winds and clear skies allowing for temperatures to drop into the
mid to upper 60s. The drier air should limit any fog development
overnight. On Tuesday, the 500mb ridge begins to build back in
across the Southeast. This will help advect in from the west a
more moist and warm airmass into the area. Afternoon highs both
Tuesday and Wednesday soar into the mid to upper 90s. The good
news is that dewpoints should remain in the upper 60s each
afternoon, keeping heat index values in the upper 90s to around
100F...below heat advisory criteria. The one caveat to this
forecast is on Wednesday as a shortwave moving across the Ohio
River Valley will drop a frontal boundary south into the TN
Valley. This will bring the greatest chance in the 7 day forecast
for showers and storms. Model guidance is still uncertain with
the timing of this front and as a result kept the NBM warmer
temperatures. If the clouds and precip arrive earlier, Wednesday
highs will likely be a few degrees cooler.

Showers and storms linger into Thursday as the front is slow to
progress south and east out of the area. Unfortunately, rainfall
amounts remain between 0.25-0.5 inches, which likely will not help
out much with the recent dry conditions. Due to precip and
increased cloud cover afternoon highs on Thursday only peak in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Heading into the weekend, the upper level ridge shifts further to
the east. This brings back southwesterly flow and as a result,
hot and humid conditions are expected with highs Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday in the mid to upper 90s. We will have to watch how
high the dewpoints remain each afternoon, but the current forecast
does call for some low 70 degree dewpoints. This would bring the
potential for triple digit heat indices and perhaps above 105F
(heat advisory criteria). However, this evening`s suite of models
indicate the potential for more diurnal convection, which will
limit the heating each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions with light northerly winds are expected through the
TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...GH