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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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557 FXUS64 KHUN 221712 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 945 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Hot and mostly sunny conditions are still expected today as a deep sub-tropical ridge continues to hold sway across the region. Showers and storms are not expected with too much of a mid-level capping inversion in place. Diurnal temperature rises have been a little above the forecast curve this morning with values largely in the mid-80s as of 9 AM. This, combined with expectations for deep mixing and higher temps aloft than yesterday, prompted a slight increase in daytime forecast max temps. Temp and heat index values still remain below criteria for Heat Advisories, but heat indices around 100 F appear possible this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Another warm and muggy night is expected across the Tennessee Valley. Morning lows will only dip down into the upper 60s to lower 70s. By the latter half of this weekend, the upper level ridge will begin to shift to the west as an upper level trough digs in across the Northeast. This will push a weak "cold" front southeastward towards our local forecast area Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Prior to this front, temperatures once again rise into the mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s. Showers and storm chances increase during the late evening Sunday, bringing low to medium (25-40%) chances of thunderstorms. Given the lack of shear in the forecast soundings, do not expect any severe storms. Unfortunately, the aformentioned cold front will not provide much relief from the heat to start the upcoming work week. In fact, even hotter conditions are forecast for the first half of the week. The mid to upper level ridge builds back in across the Mississippi Valley. Southwesterly flow will aid in increasing afternoon temperatures Monday and Tuesday into the mid to upper 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, maximum heat index values may exceed 105F. If this forecast holds true, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed. The one caveat to this, is the potential for diurnally driven thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday. Not much relief from the heat is expected overnight with lows only dropping into the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The heat finally breaks on Wednesday as another front pushes through the local forecast area. This front will bring much needed area wide showers and storms Wednesday into Thursday morning. Once again shear is quite weak, so not anticipating any severe storms. Given the cloud cover and precipitation, afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 80s to low 90s both Wednesday and Thursday. The upper level ridge begins to build back eastward and once again hot and humid conditions return to finish off the work week with afternoon highs returning to the low to mid 90s on Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected for KHSV and KMSL terminals over the next 24 hours. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....GH AVIATION...KDW