Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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614 FXUS64 KHUN 172309 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure remains in control across the Tennessee Valley for the rest of the day and into tonight. This should help to limit most weather activity, though a few showers are possible in western areas of the CWA this evening as there is slightly higher moisture in those areas. With SBCAPE values around 2000 J/kg, a locally strong storm may be possible. However, due to the very weak shear, "pulse" thunderstorms will be the main storm mode, with localized gusty winds being the main threat. After sunset, clouds/convection will dissipate, resulting in a mostly clear/dry overnight period. Overnight lows will be mild once again, bottoming out in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The upper-level ridge should remain over the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic, away from the Tennessee Valley, though should still influence our weather through the middle of the week. Synoptic- scale subsidence should still limit rain chances though the next few days (less than 10%). Drier dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, should also move in by Wednesday. In other words, very similar weather through Thursday, with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s under mostly clear skies and surface winds generally out of the south, up to 10 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Dry conditions with very warm to hot conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the work week, thanks to strong upper level ridging situated over the eastern Lower-48. The 500mb depiction of this ridge has it amplifying to near 600 decameters height values in the Thursday to early Friday timeframe. The upper ridge should weaken somewhat as it settles more to the south this weekend, and then replaced early next week as mean troughing builds in from the north. While the upper ridge is in place and under partly cloudy skies, highs on Thu should warm into the lower 90s. As the ridge heads southward, subsidence under it should help make for more sunny skies over the Tennessee Valley. More solar insolation should result in the heat returning, with highs temperatures in the Friday-Sunday time frame soaring into the mid 90s, with mid/upper 90s on Sat and especially Sun. Corresponding heat index values in 90s Thu/Fri should rise to around 100 degrees on Sat, and in the 99-104 degree range Sun. The models have backed off of a potential tropical born system moving over the SE coast Thu/Fri, instead are focusing the deepest tropical moisture over the Gulf and Caribbean. This moisture should be directed more to our west, keeping the area rain free for the most part in the latter half of the week. However, more moisture should return on Sun, and bring isolated showers/thunderstorm chances to the area. Rain chances may go up as we go into the next week, as a more unsettled pattern possibly returns. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with light, southeasterly winds overnight into Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon, southeasterly gusts up to 15-16 kts are possible. There is a very low chance some shower development may occur this evening around KMSL, however, confidence is too low to include it in the official TAF product. Therefore, amendements may be needed. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Serre SHORT TERM....Serre LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...HC