Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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689 FXUS64 KHUN 270518 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1218 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (rest of Tonight) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 We`re are sending this out earlier than normal, given high chances of severe weather as we go into the overnight. As of this writing, severe storms were raging from SW Illinois, western Kentucky, and SE Missouri. Tornado Watch #326 has recently been issued for our Tennessee counties (Lincoln, Moore, Franklin) until 5 AM. The latest model trends has a Quasi-Linear Convective System (squall line) nearing far NW Alabama around midnight. Some of the models were hinting at cellular development before the main line arrives. In either case, all modes of severe weather (wind gusts greater than 60 mph, hail larger than 1", tornadoes) are possible. Discrete cells preceding the line will be be more tornado prone in our sheared and unstable environment. The line should rapidly move across the area in a NW-SE orientation in the overnight. New guidance has slowed down the progress of the QLCS to the SE, now hinting 1AM-4AM timeframe. The latter time, especially if tornadoes occurs could become more of an issue given the very late hour of occurrence. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Given severe weather, only minor changes made this period. Shower and thunderstorm activity should wind down Memorial Day Monday, as a line of convection heads further to the south and east. A cold front should move across the area during the course of the day from NW-SE, with shower activity winding down. Dry and slightly cooler conditions will return Mon evening and continue into the midweek. Highs in the mid 80s on Mon/Tue will only rise to near 80 on Wed. Lows will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Dry air continues through the end of the week as upper level ridging moves into the Tennessee Valley from the west. On Friday evening, an upper level shortwave allows low-medium rain chances to return to the area and continue through the weekend. During the long term period, highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s/80s with overnight lows in the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 As of TAF issuance, t-storms were forming over NW AL moving east around 20kt. Additional development is possible early in the TAF. A stronger line of convection extending from SW of Memphis, to Jackson TN and Nashville heading to the ESE. This convection should reach NW AL ~07-08Z, and NE AL 10-12Z. Storms could become severe with damaging winds and hail, torrential rain, and a tornado risk. Have noted variable gusty winds for the stronger storms in the overnight. Shower activity should end from NW to SE later today, as a cold front sweeps across the area. SW winds of 5-10kt overnight should veer to the west, then WNW by Mon evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...RSB