Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 081500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New NEAR TERM...

(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A cold front that sweep in a north to south manner across the
Tennessee Valley yesterday evening; was now located from south of
the MS Golden Triangle, to north of Montgomery and south of
Columbus GA. The front should gradually move further to the
south, nearing the Gulf coast tomorrow morning. High pressure
building in from the north will bring another episode of somewhat
cooler than normal air across the region to end the work week.
Highs later today should "only" warm into the low/mid 80s, cooler
than the mid 80s to lower 90s that occurred yesterday. Dry weather
should continue over the area as well.

Air quality from a satellite view was still somewhat smoggy, but
not to the degree it was yesterday. New model data indicted that
more smog could move over the area later tonight and on Friday.
Not certain whether it will remain above the surface if/when it
arrives. Otherwise, the on-going forecast is in fine shape. No big
changes were needed.


(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Another vort lobe/shortwave will drop south through the OH into
the TN valley tonight, further solidifying a push of dry and
cooler air into the region. Morning lows will dip into the lower
to middle 50s in S TN And NE AL as a result, with upper 50s
further southwest where decks of mid and high clouds may continue
to stream southeast. These should exit by Friday with highs mostly
in the lower 80s once again with low dew points in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

As the northeast U.S. upper low begins to shift east, mid and
upper flow will become more west-northwesterly across the region.
Multiple shortwaves will eject out of the southwest U.S. and
through the southern Plains. The lead wave crosses the MS River
by Saturday evening followed closely behind by a wave arriving
in the lower OH valley through AL on Sunday morning. These waves
should bring clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the
Gulf states where greater moisture and instability will reside.
However, the models differ on the coverage across our area.
Further north in the TN valley, instability will be less, so
expecting more showers than storms initially on Sunday.


(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Meanwhile, cyclogensis over the upper Midwest will be underway
due to a strengthening upper trough/low that pivots into the Great
Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This eventually drops a cold
front southeast through the TN valley providing a likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms. If both events materialize as forecast,
most areas would receive around an inch of rain or a bit more.

After this front pushes through, Tuesday should be dry. However, a
pattern change should bring additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the middle to later part of next week. The
medium range models differ on timing and evolution of the upper
low in the southwest U.S. that ejects through the Plains and
eventually into the lower MO and middle MS valley just beyond day
7. Will stick close to suggested blended guidance for Tuesday
night into Wednesday, which keeps low chance PoP in the forecast
with potential for convection within low to mid level Theta-E
advection zone in the 5h ridge position in advance of the trough.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.




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