Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 271105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
605 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a
closed upper level low spinning to the north across southern
Illinois. Dry air can be noted along the southern periphery of the
upper level low. At the surface, the cold front is moving
eastward across northeast Alabama and should exit to the east near
daybreak. A few lingering showers will continue to be possible
across northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee through

The upper level low will continue to slide eastward across the
Ohio River Valley today. The atmosphere will be relatively dry
today with PW values around an inch. These values are actually
around the 25th percentile of climatology for late May. Forecast
soundings indicate dry mid and upper levels, these forecast
soundings match up with current trends in water vapor imagery. A
shortwave trough will rotate through the Tennessee Valley late
this morning into the early afternoon around the base of the main
upper level low. A few of the models indicate some light showers
across the area. For now, went with a dry forecast and think the
rain will remain to the north, but did increase the cloud cover
during this timeframe. Upper level heights will be anomalously low
for late May today as the closed low passes to the north. Due to
this, temperatures will be on the cool side with highs only in the
low to mid 70s for most locations.


(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Skies will eventually become mostly clear this evening into the
overnight hours as drier air in the low-levels advects into the
area. Northerly winds will be light overnight. After widespread
rainfall over the last several days, expect fog will form
overnight despite the drier air advecting in from the north.
Overnight lows will drop down into the low to mid 50s making for a
rather cool start to the day on Saturday.

The rest of the forecast features a warming trend with dry
condition continuing. Temperatures will moderate over the Memorial
Day weekend and into next week as heights aloft increase behind
the departing upper level closed low. Highs on Saturday will
rebound into the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints will remain in
the low 60s with light northerly winds. Surface winds should
eventually shift to the south late Sunday afternoon as the Bermuda
high takes hold. However, do not expect an uptick in dewpoints
until Monday. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 80s with mid to
upper 80s expected on Monday.


(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

The upper level ridge becomes centered over the Mid-Atlantic
extending to the southwest into the Tennessee Valley during the
early part of the long-term forecast period. Surface temperatures
and dewpoints will increase Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in
the upper 80s and low 90s on Tuesday and low 90s on Wednesday.
Dewpoints will climb into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday with
these values lasting through Thursday. These dewpoints will lead
to hot/humid typical summer time conditions. However, dry
conditions should continue under the ridge with the lack of any
synoptic lift.

Models do indicate that the ridge will breakdown later in the week
as an upper level trough and cold front approach from the
northwest on Thursday. PoPs return to the forecast on Thursday
afternoon with cooler conditions possible on Friday.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

VFR conditions currently across the terminals and expect these
conditions will continue throughout the majority of the TAF cycle.
There is an area of MVFR ceilings across SW TN rotating to the
southeast. Expect these clouds may reach MSL around 14z and HSV
around 16z. Still not sure if these clouds will lift or dissipate
all together and only included a TEMPO for MVFR conditions. Skies
will be come clear later this evening with light winds overnight.
This will set the stage for fog to develop. For now, have VFR
conditions overnight but may need to reduce visibilities in later
TAF issuances.




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