023
FXUS64 KHUN 251737
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1137 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Westerly flow aloft of 55-65 knots will exist across the TN
Valley today, initially providing a few high-level clouds that
will begin to increase in coverage beginning very late this
afternoon. In the lower-levels, light SSW flow (around a high
situated across southern GA) is anticipated at the surface, with
WSW flow predicted to increase to 15-25 knots at the 850-mb level.
Resultant warm advection within the boundary layer, combined with
abundant sunshine (prior to the onset of thicker high-level
clouds) will allow temperatures to climb into the u40s-l50s in the
valley (mid 40s in the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern
TN).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

While a zonal flow pattern will persist through the weekend, a sfc
low pressure system is forecast to form in the southern Plains.
Subsequently, a cold front is set to push through the Mississippi
Valley Sunday morning. This will bring low-medium chances (20-50%)
of precipitation to northern AL and southern middle TN ahead of it
Sunday morning into Monday morning.

As precipitation arrives Sunday morning into northwest AL, there
is a low chance (15% or less) of a rain/snow mix. If realized,
this will be short lived with no snowfall accumulations.
Confidence in snow (nonetheless rainfall) is low at this time due
to dry air occurring in model soundings. As the front progresses
eastward, rain chances overspread the area from west to east with
higher chances remaining south of the TN River (40-50%). High
temperatures are forecast to reach the 40s during the afternoon
before dropping back into the mid 30s (but still above freezing)
overnight. Therefore, all remaining precipitation is forecast to
fall in liquid form. By the time we reach our official low
temperatures Monday morning, rain should exit with the front to
the southeast.

Monday and Tuesday bring temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s with
overnight lows in the lower 30s Monday night. Dry weather is
forecast during this time as post-frontal sfc high pressure
filters into the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Another chance of rain returns to the forecast mid week as a
closed upper low forecast to reside just northwest of TX
approaches the Tennessee Valley, bringing low chances (30% or
less) of rain showers Wednesday through Friday. This is blended
guidance for now due to uncertainty within ensembles in timing of
this system. Timing is trending for a later arrival of the system,
which will likely cause a rain-filled weekend ahead. If you have
outdoor plans, be sure to check back in for updates as we monitor
the timing and impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Scattered-occasionally broken Ci will continue to spread across
the region this aftn, within moderately strong westerly flow
aloft. The coverage of high clouds will become overcast by 23-0Z,
with ceilings expected to descend rather quickly into the 6-10 kft
layer early Sunday morning (~9Z/MSL and ~10Z/HSV) as a storm
system becomes more organized to the southwest of our region.
Present indications are that an overcast layer of stratus will
become established by 13-14Z, but at this point we will keep
ceilings around 3500 ft. Although some very light precipitation
may also spread eastward into northern AL (particularly btwn
10-16Z), confidence is currently too low to include in the
forecast. However, it is worth noting that if this does indeed
occur, it may come in the form of a wintry mixture of very light
SN/IP/FZRA in portions of the forecast area. Sfc winds will remain
from the SSW-S at speeds arnd 5 knots during the day, but will
become lgt/vrbl-calm overnight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD