Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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407 FXUS64 KHUN 121105 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 605 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A weak shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex region is currently supporting bands of mid to high clouds extending NE of the area. This shortwave will trek SE of the area impacting only our temperatures via the presence of high clouds. Cloud cover is generally forecast to increase during the day as this feature moves SE, yet there is still some uncertainty in exact coverage and location of clouds. While cloudier conditions will keep temperatures in the mid 80s for one more day, locations that see clearer conditions than currently forecast will likely see temps closer to the high 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Ongoing ridging in the SW CONUS will strengthen and progress east through the duration of the short term bringing with it very hot and dry (in the terms of precip) weather. The translation of the 500 MB ridge east across the CONUS will start a warming trend with temps heating into the low 90s on Thursday. By the weekend, the ridge will be centered nearly on top of us resulting in the progression of high temps into the mid to high 90s by Saturday with temps peaking on Sunday. A surge of moisture ahead of a front to our north will only increase the heat risk through the weekend. With dew points in the high 60s arriving for the weekend, heat index values soar into the 100s Saturday and Sunday. With stout ridging provide ample subsidence below it, there will be little in the way of heat relief as both cloud cover and winds will be incredibly light each day. That being said it will be increasingly important that individuals take the precautions necessary to keep safe from both the sun and the heat through the weekend. This includes wearing proper sun protection and avoiding heat exhaustion by taking frequent breaks in shade and staying hydrated. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The long term forecast poses the question when will we see rain and heat relief? Unfortunately the answer remains somewhat uncertain. By Sunday night there will likely be ongoing convection in the southern Gulf associated with a Gulf low somewhere near the Yucatan. Models diverge on how far north both the Gulf moisture and eventual rain associated with this feature will make it. The GFS favors weakening ridging and a more northward track of gulf moisture bringing us rain and clouds for the start of the work week. The Euro favors stronger ridging suppressing all rain chances and yielding additional days in the high 90s. For this issuance, kept low rain chances in through the long term with cloudy conditions limiting temps to the low 90s. As this period moves closer in time, guidance will become more clear on when heat relief and rain will arrive. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 With light northerly winds and clear skies, VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals for the duration of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...RAD