169
FXUS64 KHUN 161056
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
556 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Unseasonably warm/muggy conditions continue across the central TN
Valley this early Sun morning, with current temps mainly in the
mid/upper 70s. Given the dew pts trends in the upper 60s/lower
70s, these temps should be able to drop a couple of more degrees
before the onset of the daytime hrs. A strong upper ridge axis
drifting eastward into the southern Atlantic states coupled with
low level flow veering to the SSE should again allow temps later
today to climb well into the mid/perhaps upper 90s for many spots.
Max heat indices this afternoon also look to be around 100-104F.
While these readings are just under Heat Advisory criteria, those
engaging in outdoor activities along with the more vulnerable
population should exercise caution today and stay hydrated. An
increase in low level moisture coupled with SBCAPE values around
2-3K J/kg will also translate into a low chc for showers/tstms
(20-30%) later today. Minimal deep layer shear should offset the
prob for more organized tstms, although a few stronger storms
capable of gusty winds/brief heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Any lingering showers/tstms should quickly diminish with the start
of the early evening hrs. Another unseasonably warm/muggy night is
then expected into early Mon, with lows falling mainly into the
mid 70s/near 70F. The upper ridge pattern also looks to remain
fairly stagnant over the southern Atlantic states going into the
abbreviated work week. With a slightly more active southerly flow
pattern developing across the lower MS Valley region coupled with
a continued increase in moisture, a low chc for mainly afternoon
showers/tstms (20-30%) looks to remain in the forecast Mon/Tue.
The pulse like nature of any convection will again allow for a
few stronger storms, capable of gusty winds/brief heavy rainfall.
A slight increase in cloud cover will also translate in afternoon
highs more in the lower 90s/near 90F. Lows Mon night also look to
remain in the mid 70s/near 70F for most spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Summer-like warmth will continue over much of the southeast and
eastern Lower-48, as strong upper level ridging becomes a controlling
feature for our sensible weather. This upper ridge should be centered
over the coastal Mid Atlantic and New England with maximum heights
around 597 decameters. The ridge will strengthen even more as we go
through second half of the week, peaking at 600 decameters from
Wednesday into late Thursday. The presence of the ridge although
located more to our NE, should be close enough to suppress convection,
due to warm temperatures aloft and subsidence that occurs under
strong areas of high pressure.

Juneteenth/Wednesday should feature more clouds than sun with highs
rising to around 90, which is close to seasonable norms. Overall
atmospheric moisture over this region should decrease Wed night, with
lows around 70. Thursday, and the first day of Summer (which occurs
around 351 PM CDT) should come in style with highs rising into
the low/mid 90s. A tad warmer is expected on Friday with highs in
the mid 90s. Corresponding heat index values on Juneteenth should
range close to the air temperatures in the Wed-Fri timeframe. Low
temps in this period should cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A system of tropical origins could move over the SE coast (north
Florida to South Carolina) in the Thu/Fri timeframe. Output from
the various model camps are uncertain with timing and strength
with this feature. The GFS was the fastest and further south
solution with it coming ashore Thu, while the ECMWF was more over
the GA/SC coast Thu night, and the Canadian over the SC coast Fri
and the weakest depiction. In any case, moisture from the tropics
will move across the Tennessee Valley late Friday into Saturday.
Strong daytime heating Sat with highs in the mid 90s and heat
index values to 101 will produce a more unstable environment.
There appears to be enough moisture to help a few showers and
thunderstorms form Sat afternoon over the entire area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Other than a few high clouds in place, VFR conds are expected to
prevail thru the morning hrs. A weak frontal boundary invof the
area may then serve as a focus mech for a few shra/tsra and a
PROB30 group has been maintained for this afternoon. Light/var
winds will also turn o the SE near 7kt later this morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...09