571
FXUS64 KHUN 310246
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
946 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Latest radar shows a few showers developing in Mississippi along
a weak boundary that is oriented in a west to southeast fashion
from northern MS into central Alabama. 7 PM CDT BMX sounding does
indicate just enough of a moisture column from 850 mb up to
around 600 mb for some shower development with PWATS of 1.26
inches. Mainly expecting a very low chance of showers and maybe a
thunderstorm or two along this weak boundary as it continues to
move northward overnight into the early morning hours on Friday
(mainly in portions of NW Alabama).

Winds are calm in many locations, except near this boundary,
where winds are around 5 knots. Not expecting much fog, but some
mist or fog could develop in our typical fog prone sheltered
valley locations of NE AL and portions of Cullman county towards
midnight into the daybreak hours. Further west, winds should pick
up after midnight and high clouds should keep fog from developing.

Despite high clouds, temperatures should drop off to near
dewpoints values east of the I-65 corridor. However, the northern
movement of this boundary and better low level moisture in NW
Alabama should keep lows near the AL/MS border from dropping below
the 60 to 65 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...more
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Dry wx conditions will linger into Fri, as both the sfc high/upper
ridge begin to move east of the mid TN Valley. Cloud cover will
also increase Fri afternoon, as veering winds usher moisture back
into the region. With the return flow pattern, afternoon temps Fri
will trend a few degrees warmer compared to today, with highs more
in the lower/mid 80s. Isolated showers/tstms will then gradually
spread back into NW AL Fri night, as an upper shrtwv out of the
southern Plains begins to lift to the NE. Medium to high chances
for showers/tstms (50-70%) will then prevail for the upcoming
weekend period, as multiple embedded shortwaves aloft traverse
eastward over much of the region. SBCAPE values around 1500-2000
J/kg coupled with Effective Shear near 20-30kt may allow for a
few stronger storms, capable of brief heavy rainfall/gusty winds,
especially west of I-65 Sat afternoon. Given the increase in
cloud cover/rainfall, afternoon highs both Sat/Sun look to climb
mainly into the lower/mid 80s, while lows into early Sun trend
predom in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

An upper level trough moves into the area early next week,
bringing continues shower/thunderstorm chances to the Tennessee
Valley through Wednesday. During this time, high temperatures are
forecast to be in the 80s with low temperatures in the 60s. No
severe weather is currently forecast. However, we will be
monitoring these storms as we move into the end of this week!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. For now we
have left any fog formation out of the forecast at both
terminals. KMSL looks more certain that this will happen due to
the dry air in place, high clouds/5 knot winds expected towards
daybreak. At the KHSV terminal, fog development may be possible
since winds could stay decoupled longer there and less cloud cover
is expected. We will have to watch KHSV for the next update in
case we need to add fog to the forecast that could produce MVFR
VSBYS.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...KTW