106
FXUS64 KHUN 141144
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
644 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An area of low pressure over Missouri should slowly head eastward,
reaching the central KY/TN border Wed morning, and to the Mid
Atlantic region in the evening. A number of fronts extending south
of this low should move across the Tennessee Valley tonight.
Before then, an area of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms were forming along a boundary that extended
approximately from the Missouri Bootheel to Birmingham. Activity
in this boundary SE of NW Alabama was not really very apparent via
local and regional radar as of this typing. But it should blossom
a bit more in the course of the late night and early morning.
Larger development of this convection will be dampened by a number
of thunderstorm complexes heading eastward along the Gulf coast.
These storms do intercept higher instability that would otherwise
move over inland.

A break in the activity should be realized later this morning,
with maybe a few breaks in the cloud deck. The heating of an
already unstable airmass and approach of the aformentioned frontal
boundaries will change that. We have more showers and storms
expected beginning in the early afternoon, with a possible QLCS
type feature forming as convection becomes more organized. Some of
the storms could become strong to severe, with outflow wind gusts
and large hail the main threats. The shower activity should
diminish from west to east in the late afternoon to early evening.
With a slightly warmer airmass returning, high temperatures today
should warm into the mid/upper 70s despite clouds and rain
chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A brief dry period is expected as we go into the night, as a cold
front south of the parent low moves east of the region. Low
temperatures tonight should cool into the lower 60s. While the
front heads further to the east, the surface low moving at a
slower pace over the TN/KY border will return more lower level
moisture to the region. Daytime heating on Wed will produce
destabilization and another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
These storms should be of "general" strength with a usual risk of
strong gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes.
This activity should end by Wed evening as the parent low finally
exits further to the east, and even drier air filters in from the
west and northwest. Highs on Wed should range in the mid/upper
70s, and lows that night around 60.

Thursday looks to be a dry day with clouds decreasing in the late
morning and afternoon. This should help high temperatures warm
into the low/mid 80s. However, another system will be nearing the
area, and bring more chances of showers and thunderstorms starting
Thu night. Lows that night should be milder, in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Upper level ridging on Thursday quickly gives way to another upper
level shortwave trough slated to move over the Tennessee Valley on
Friday and into the weekend. However, there remains a fair bit of
model disagreement with regards to the evolution and timing of the
shortwave through the region. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure
system is shown to develop and progress over central Texas on
Thursday. By Friday morning, this feature looks to progress into the
ArkLaTex. At the same time, another low pressure system is shown to
move over the Midwest and into the upper Ohio Valley on Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front from this system looks to sweep
over the Tennessee Valley on Friday, bringing high chances (70-85%)
of showers as well as the potential for storms.

As for any potential for strong to severe storms, confidence is low
at this time. Models show sufficient instability and shear for
thunderstorm development, but not much more at this point. Overall,
some gusty winds are possible along with frequent lightning and heavy
downpours with any storms that do develop. Low chances (20-40%) of
showers and storms then continue through the weekend, with low
chances (10-20%) Sunday night through Monday. These lingering
chances, especially Sunday and Monday, are likely due to the
aforementioned model disagreement in the upper levels. We will
continue to monitor trends with future model runs, as details of any
potential severe weather for late week as well as precipitation
chances from the weekend into early next week will become clearer
with better model agreement.

Quite the warm up is possible between Friday and Monday. Highs
Friday are forecast to be mild, in the mid to upper 70s, due to
higher chances and coverage of showers and storms. Highs are expected
to be a bit warmer on Saturday, with temperatures reaching the lower
to mid 80s. By Monday, highs in the mid to upper 80s are possible.
As for low temperatures, values generally remain in the lower to mid
60s through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An area of convection was in progress over northern MS into
adjacent TN moving to the NE. Am expecting this activity to remain
west of the KMSL terminal into the late morning. The models were
showing a redevelopment of more showers and thunderstorms in the
early afternoon, with it moving eastward over the area into the
early evening. Timing of this activity`s east movement has slowed
some, thus it may continue more into the evening. Some of the
storms becoming strong could produce gusty winds, which was noted
in the KHSV. Have shower activity diminishing from west to east
this evening, as a frontal boundary pushes east of the area. SSE
winds this morning should gradually veer to the SSW in the early
evening, generally remaining under 10kt.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB