Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
888 FXUS63 KICT 211732 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for scattered to numerous showers/storms late today through Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall likely, especially along/north of Highway 50. - One more day of hot weather today, with a big cool down Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 PRECIPITATION... EARLY THIS MORNING--EARLY AFTERNOON...A smattering of hit-or-miss showers/storms will impact the region, ahead of subtle mid-level energy amidst rich mid-level moisture. Most locations should remain dry. Brief heavy rain will accompany the strongest cores. LATE THIS AFTERNOON--SUNDAY NIGHT...This period will feature increasing chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave approaching from the southwest interacts with a strong cold front approaching from the north. The best chances late this afternoon through about midday Sunday will be mainly along and northwest of I-35, with these chances gradually shifting south into southern and southeast Kansas Sunday afternoon and night. While widespread severe weather is not expected, modest instability and ample flow aloft may support some storm organization for a handful of strong to severe storms, mainly late this afternoon- evening along/northwest of I-35, and again over southeast Kansas Sunday afternoon-evening. Additionally, seasonably high precipitable waters and numerous training showers/storms will support locally heavy rainfall, with the greatest potential for localized storm- total amounts exceeding 1-2 inches generally along/north of Highway 50 per probabilistic guidance. MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports the potential for scattered light precipitation Tuesday night, as shortwave energy dives southeast over Mid-America. Thereafter, significant model divergence is noted, with the ECMWF and Canadian consensus stalling an upper low over the region through next weekend, while the GFS is much more progressive. The ECMWF/Canadian solutions would support periodic rain chances (especially if the latest Canadian verifies with the incorporation of remnant tropical energy), while the GFS would keep a mostly dry forecast. Stay tuned as details become clearer the next several days. TEMPERATURES... TODAY--SATURDAY...One more day of above average temperatures will prevail through today, as southerly flow persists ahead of a deep western CONUS trough. Widespread 90s to near 100 degrees are likely, although increasing dense mid and upper clouds could end up tempering highs a few degrees cooler, especially over central Kansas. SUNDAY AND BEYOND...Much cooler weather is on the way, as a strong cold front slices south through Mid-America. The cooler Canadian airmass combined with widespread clouds and precipitation should keep central Kansas in the 50s-60s Sunday, with 70s and 80s further south, although temperatures will be falling by mid-late afternoon over southern Kansas. Deterministic and ensemble consensus keeps the region below average much of next week, especially if the cooler ECMWF and Canadian solutions verify with the stalling storm system over Mid-America. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Area of showers and storms currently over southwest Kansas will spread into central/south central Kansas this evening. In addition, a cold front will push slowly southward across the region tonight. The showers and storms will become more widespread tonight along with low clouds building in across central Kansas. The low cloud heights are expected to drop into IFR category for late tonight into Sunday morning over. The showers/storms will begin to taper off from west to east into the morning hours on Sunday. North winds will prevail on Sunday in the wake of the cold frontal passage. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell on Sunday. The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast calling for mid-upper 50s. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...CDJ CLIMATE...ADK