731
FXUS63 KICT 241047
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
547 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fall-like temperatures expected over the next week or so.

- A few isolated showers possible today.

- Potential for increasing rain chances late this week and into the
  weekend?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Clear skies and light winds have allowed for dense fog to develop
across portions of southeast Kansas this morning. After sunrise,
this fog is expected to mix out, and visibilities should
dramatically improve by mid-morning. Meanwhile, a fairly powerful
trough is digging into the central plains early this morning, while
a large upper ridge is expanding across the western CONUS. Out ahead
of the meridional jet streak diving southward out of the northern
CONUS, a few showers have developed across portions of Nebraska.
This activity is generally expected to continue moving
south/southeast ahead of the nose of this jet streak, and isolated
showers will be possible throughout the day across much of the
forecast area. There is a narrow window where just enough low level
moisture may overlap with cool temperatures aloft (steep lapse
rates) to allow for a thunderstorm or two across far eastern Kansas
this afternoon. However, instability will be meager at best, so
chances for a stray thunderstorm will remain at or below 20%. What
the arrival of this trough will also do is establish a secondary
push of fall-like air. Although with downsloping off the High Plains
later today into the first half of Wednesday, this may actually lead
to slightly warmer conditions across the area with afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s, especially along and west
of the I-135 corridor this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.

After Wednesday, a bit of an odd weather pattern will establish
itself across the eastern half of the CONUS. Depending on the
placement of some key features, it may lead to some unsettled
weather during the latter part of the week and into the weekend.
Global ensemble and deterministic models are fairly confident that
the upper trough digging into the central plains today will
eventually become a cutoff upper low over the southeastern CONUS
later this week. This is where a couple different scenarios could
play out. If the upper low positions itself further east across the
Tennessee Valley, warmer and drier conditions would likely prevail
across the area late this week and into the weekend. Conversely, if
the upper low positions itself across the Ozarks, then cooler and
potentially wetter conditions would be expected late this week and
into the weekend. This upper low is expected to interact with a
tropical system that may potentially (the word "potentially" doing a
lot of heavy lifting here) introduce more moisture to the area this
weekend as it pivots westward around the northern side of the upper
low. It should be noted that the best chances for precipitation
during the latter portion of the forecast period will be across
eastern Kansas no matter which scenario plays out. This would likely
leave central Kansas out of play for any appreciable moisture, an
area that definitely needs some drought relief after missing out
with the previous storm system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Radiational cooling amidst light winds and moist low-levels will
continue to support widespread dense fog over far eastern and
southeast Kansas through early this morning. LIFR conditions
are likely at the CNU TAF site. Thinking the fog will dissipate
by 14z.

Meanwhile, shortwave energy approaching from the north will
support a band of light rain showers spreading southeast across
central and eastern Kansas today. Additionally, cold air aloft
and associated marginal instability should support an additional
area of hit-or-miss showers/storms over eastern Kansas early
to mid-evening, capable of localized gusty winds and brief
heavy rain.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK