Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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366 FXUS63 KICT 101727 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures by mid-week, persisting through at least early next week. Triple digit heat indices Thursday. - Off-and-on thunderstorm chances Tuesday, and again Thursday evening through Sunday, mainly over the northern and western halves of Kansas. Widespread severe weather potential is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 TODAY--WEDNESDAY...Quiet weather is expected today and tonight. For Tuesday, a weak surface trough approaching from the northwest, emanating from shortwave energy traversing the northern CONUS, could be a focus for a few showers/thunderstorms over mainly the northern half of Kansas. A rather marginal combination of instability and deep layer shear should preclude severe weather. With atmospheric thickness and southerly flow increasing, temperatures will be warming the next few days, reaching the 90s for most by Wednesday. THURSDAY--NEXT MONDAY...This period will feature mostly above average temperatures, with periodic chances for thunderstorms. Thinking thunderstorm chances will be confined to mainly the northern and western halves of Kansas. Thursday night through early Friday chances will be focused in vicinity of a stalling frontal zone approaching from the north, with Saturday and Sunday chances as a result of an upper trough approaching from the west. The overall potential for organized severe weather appears low at this time given rather weak forcing and only modest at best shear, although a few locally strong to severe storms are possible. The primary threats would likely be isolated occurrences of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Quiet VFR conditions are expected at all sites throughout the period, with winds anticipated to become more southerly through the overnight and early morning hours. A slight chance of showers at KRSL and KSLN returns toward the end of the period as a weak system approaches north central KS early tomorrow morning, but confidence in timing and location of these remains low at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JK/CDJ