305
FXUS63 KICT 220553
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous/widespread showers with embedded storms tonight.

- Much cooler for Sunday with lingering showers/storms.

- Mild days/cool nights for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A strong signal for a welcome rainfall event ramping up early
this evening generally west of I-135 before spreading eastward
overnight thru Sunday across the rest of central and eastern
Kansas. An area of convection was moving out across the northern
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles at early afternoon well ahead of the
approaching upper trof just southwest of the Four Corners
region. While clouds have inhibited warming somewhat earlier in
the day, late afternoon sun/heating should result in mlcape
values around 1500 j/kg over parts of the area in the presence
of moderate deep layer shear. This should support a few strong
to marginally severe storms early this evening. Otherwise,
stronger forcing for ascent will move across the area overnight
in advance of the upper shortwave trof. Fairly high precipitable
water values (around 2") will lend to efficient rainfall from
any storms, especially along/west of the Kansas turnpike
corridor through early Sunday morning. The good news is that
some of this looks to fall over the drought-stricken areas of
south central Kansas just west and northwest of Wichita. The
main theme on Sunday will be much cooler weather with lingering
showers and perhaps a few storms on gusty northerly winds.

A residual weak upper trof will linger over the central Plains
into Monday before being kicked eastward as a northern stream
upper trof settles southward across the northern Plains into the
Midwest on Tuesday. The medium range consensus seems to support
developing this into a cutoff low meandering somewhere over
Kansas or the central conus later in the week as a blocking
pattern (ridge aloft) building over the Upper Midwest/northern
Great Lakes. Overall, while moderating some, this looks to keep
temperatures a bit below seasonal climo thru the week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Several impacts to aviation interests are expected over the next
24 hours.

A slug of widespread showers and storms is currently working
across the eastern half of Kansas early this morning with
pockets of heavy rainfall bringing visibility down to a mile at
times. Despite this activity moving eastward early this morning,
additional thunderstorm development is occurring across portions
of southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles which will
likely enter the region later morning into the early afternoon
hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will slowly come to
an end from northwest to southeast. Conditions should begin to
improve around KRSL, KGBD, and KSLN by around 21Z this
afternoon, and improving conditions in and around KCNU may not
occur until after 06Z late tonight.

Meanwhile, a cold front is pushing southeastward across the
region, and is already along a KGBD-KSLN line as of 06Z early
this morning. Winds are generally light and variable south of
the front, but should become more uniform out of the north after
frontal passage with sustained winds around 10 to 15 knots and
gusts up to 25 knots possible at times. Also, much lower
ceilings are expected across the area, especially across areas
experiencing showers and storms. Cigs could drop to IFR levels
at times, especially along and east of the Kansas Turnpike
during the morning and early afternoon hours today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell on Sunday.
The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast
calling for mid-upper 50s.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...JC
CLIMATE...ADK