956
FXUS63 KICT 221129
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler today with lingering showers/storms through
  tonight.

- Below average temperatures for the upcoming week.

- Potential for increasing rain chances late week and next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

PRECIPITATION...

TODAY--EARLY MONDAY...An approaching potent shortwave trough in
concert with a strong/deep frontal zone will support continued
widespread areas of rain/storms across the region through about
midday. While instability is lacking, strong forcing amidst high
precipitable waters will support areas of heavy rainfall, and
possibly localized minor flooding of typical flood-prone areas.
Activity will likely becoming less widespread/numerous this
afternoon and evening, as the upper trough shears out and associated
lift decreases. The available forcing and associated hit-or-miss
precipitation chances will gradually focus across mainly southeast
Kansas by late this afternoon through tonight and early Monday.

TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...Shortwave energy diving south-southeast
across Mid-America may support hit-or-miss mainly light
precipitation. Thinking rainfall amounts will remain light given
marginal precipitable waters.

LATE WEEK--NEXT WEEKEND...The ECMWF and Canadian deterministic and
ensemble consensus continues to support the potential for increasing
meaningful precipitation over mainly eastern Kansas, as a stalled
mid-level trough over the region interacts with dissipating tropical
energy/moisture approaching from the southeast. The deterministic
GFS and ensemble mean still is not supporting this scenario, and the
Canadian solution has backed off some, so for now will only carry 20-
30 PoPs until model agreement increases.

TEMPERATURES...

TODAY--NEXT WEEK...Cooler Canadian air oozing south combined with
precipitation and mostly cloudy skies will support well below
average temperatures today, ranging from the 50s-60s to near 80
degrees, warmest over far southeast Kansas. Below average
temperatures will prevail through the week, with forecast highs
mostly in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A large swath of showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms is
moving across much of the eastern half of Kansas this morning.
Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall is brining visibility
down around 1 to 4 miles in some areas. Behind this large area
of rain, showers become more hit-or-miss. As such, rain chances
should gradually diminish from west to east over the next 24
hours or so. Portions of central Kansas will see improving
conditions perhaps as soon as 18Z while portions of southeast
Kansas may not see improving conditions until tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, a cold front is sweeping across Kansas this morning.
It`s located generally along the Kansas Turnpike as of 12Z.
Winds are light and variable ahead of the front, but will become
more uniform out of the north at around 10 to 15 knots after
frontal passage. Cigs will also fluctuate between VFR and IFR
this morning and early this afternoon across south-central and
southeast Kansas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell today.
The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast
calling for upper 50s or low 60s.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC
CLIMATE...ADK