268
FXUS63 KICT 190546
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few storms this evening west of I-135 with storms also
  possible Thursday afternoon and evening for locations along
  and especially east of the KS Turnpike. Severe storms will be
  possible both this evening and Thursday afternoon/evening.

- Shower/storm chances expected to increase this weekend,
  especially for the Sat evening through Sun time frame.

- Highs Thursday afternoon will be around 100 across parts of
  south central KS into the Flint Hills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Currently have an upper low spinning over eastern MT and about
to move into the Northern High Plains with another upper impulse
just off of the Central CA coast. At the surface,
dryline/surface trough extends from southwest Nebraska and
across far Western KS with unseasonably rich low level moisture
east of this feature.

Storms are still expected to develop late this afternoon along
the surface trough/dryline which will be along or just west of
our western flank with this activity slowly working east into
the early evening hours. There will be plenty of instability
and fairly marginal shear in place, with hail up to quarter
size and downburst winds possible.

Confidence is increasing in another round of storms Thu
afternoon and evening for mainly the Flint Hills into southeast
KS as the surface trough continues to slide east. Moisture and
instability will once again be fairly impressive, with deep
layer shear a bit more impressive than it will be this evening
with effective deep layer shear around 35kts. So current
thinking is that at least half dollar size hail will be possible
and if current trends continue, could see up to golf ball.

Winds will veer around to the southwest near or just behind the
surface trough Thu afternoon which will setup some downslope.
This will help highs soar to the upper 90s to around 100 across
mainly south central KS into the Flint Hills.

The upper low that is just off of the CA coast will track east
for the next couple of days and by Sat morning will be tracking
over the Desert Southwest and into the Central Rockies Sat
night. At the same time a cold front is expected to sag south
and by 00z Sun will extend from northwest KS into eastern
Nebraska. Current thinking is that this is where the higher
shower and storm chances will be situated with this front
sagging south through Sunday. So while precip chances will ramp
up this weekend, at this time it appears the better chances for
widespread heavy rain will be across northern KS into Nebraska.
By 00z Mon the upper impulse will be lifting into the Mid/Upper
Mississippi Valley with some additional energy digging south
across the Northern/Central Rockies. The main story for the
start of next week with be a return to much cooler temps with
highs in the 70s for both Mon and Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A rogue elevated storm or two will be hard to rule out during
the overnight hours with some accas lingering over much of the
area on the eastern periphery of the nocturnal LLJ. Cloud bases
are around 11k ft so VFR is expected to prevail but a brief
shower may drive visibilities to MVFR briefly. LLWS conditions
are expected to linger trough around 12Z-13Z at our central KS
TAF sites. A weak frontal boundary/trough axis at the surface
will build eastward to around the Kansas Turnpike late this
afternoon before stalling. Wind in it`s wake will shift to the
southwest. Winds will gradually veer to the northwest as we
move into the evening and overnight hours over central and
portions of south central KS while southerly winds will prevail
in southeast KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM